Was Ray Allen the Right All-Star Replacement?

It was reported on February 3rd, 2009 that first-time All-Star and point guard for the Orlando Magic, Jameer Nelson, suffered a torn labrum and would be out indefinitely. This means three things - A) that the Orlando Magic are in serious trouble, B) that Jameer Nelson will not be able to take part in All-Star weekend activities and C) that a replacement would need to be chosen.

And a replacement was chosen - Ray "Jesus Shuttlesworth" Allen, star guard for the league-best Boston Celtics. Allen, who will join teammates Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce, is one of the league's most feared shooters and 2nd only to my All-Time favorite, Reggie Miller, in terms of career three pointers made. He should certainly have been in the running for this selection, but was it the right choice?

It all depends on how you look at the situation. If you've read my blog before, then you know that I don't subscribe to any particular method in terms of All-Star selection. Rather, I attempt to use parts of each theory. That means I will be looking at team performence, individual statistics (both base and in-depth) and, for this particular installment, team need. I will be looking at each of the other candidates and directly comparing them to Allen. Think of it as a round-by-round Boxing match. Can Sugar-Ray come out swinging or will another player take the crown.


Round 1: Ray Allen vs. David Lee (pf, New York Knicks)

David Lee has taken full advantage of Eddy Curry piling up DNPs like it's nobody's business. He is one of the leading candidates for the NBA's "Most Improved Player" Award and has proven himself to be much more than a good 6th man. Surprisingly, Lee and Allen stack up more evenly than Joe Sportsfan would think. Lee has a 0.3 advantage in PER (due to efficient scoring and outstanding rebounding). Ray, however, has the advantage in +/- by a large margin. Oddly enough, Lee has a net +/- of -4.5 while Ray Allen is currently at an impressive +15.4. Lee statistically out-produces his counterpart (meaning the player who he guards and vice versa) by just 0.3 points, whereas Allen's advantage is as 8.3. When looking at team standing, as expected, the Celtics are sitting pretty while the Knicks are 11th in the Eastern Conference. Neither guy plays at the one position the Eastern Conference actually needs (point guard), so I'll throw that out of the window.

Ray Allen gets the "Check" from me on this one.


Round 2: Ray Allen vs. Mo Williams (pg, Cleveland Cavaliers)

I was almost certain that Mo Williams was going to be chosen as the replacement. After all, it's arguable that Jameer Nelson was better than him, and Cleveland had (and still have) a better record than Orlando. So when I saw that Nelson was out, leaving the Eastern Conference without a backup to Devin Harris, I figured Mo Williams already had his ticket stamped for Arizona. Well, that's not how it turned out, but is it how it should have been? Williams posts a PER of 16.9, a full point below Allen's. His defense has been solid this year, much better than his Milwaukee days, but Allen has him covered in that department, since the Celtics are by far the NBA's best defensive squad while Boston is 3.4 points better defensively when Ray is on the floor (compared to Cleveland, just 0.2 points better defensively with Williams). Team standing is eliminated from the equation. Boston has a slight advantage but it is so minimal that no one should be choosing one player over the other because of it. What keeps Mo alive in this comparison is the fact that he plays 67% of his minutes at the point guard position, and Allen plays all of his minutes at either shooting guard or small forward. However, it is of my opinion that this is not enough to give Williams his first All-Star selection when taking all of the other evidence that points to the contrary into consideration.

Another "Check" for ShaRayRay.


Round 3: Ray Allen vs. Vince Carter (sg, New Jersey Nets)

Vince Carter is no stranger to All-Star Weekend. He's been selected 8 times in his NBA career. He truly is half-man half-amazing, but unfortunately for him, highlight-reel slams get no points in my book. A PER of 20.5, however, will. With many fans predicting the Nets to own one of the worst records in the league, they've done better than expected, though still sub-par. Carter as the advantage on offense. Despite sky-high shooting percentages for Allen (eFG% and TS%), he does little else to fill up the box-score. Vince, on the other hand, is quite adept at this aspect, averaging 5 rebounds and 4.7 assists per-36 minutes. I think it's also fair to say that if you switch Allen with Carter on the Celtics, Boston wouldn't lose much, if any ground. There's also a strong likelihood Vince would see higher efficiency. Where Ray Allen makes a case for himself in this comparison is in defense. When Carter wants to be, he can play solid defense, but rarely do I see him have the focus and determination on that side of the court. He plays for the 3rd-worst defensive team in the league while the Nets are a full 4 points worse defensively when he is on the floor. Meanwhile, Allen, playing for the league's best defensive squad, has no problems playing consistent and markedly above-average defense. Team standing must also enter the conversation. Yes, I'm well aware that there is an obvious talent discrepancy but credit must be given to Boston and Allen for being on track to surpass last season's win total.

In the closest round thus far, the "Check" goes to Allen.


Final Round: Ray Allen vs. Rajon Rondo (pg, Boston Celtics)

What? Rajon Rondo an All-Star? I must be smoking something good, right? Not necessarily. The 3rd-year point guard is having a career year. He's gone from being a liability on offense to a threat, ala Tony Parker of yesteryear. He does precisely what the Celtics need from their point guard - score efficiently, play defense and know your role. As has been mentioned, Ray Allen's shooting percentages are out of this world, but his PER is at 18 because he averages just 3.4 rebounds and 2.7 assists per-36 minutes. Rondo is the opposite. He struggles with mid-range shooting (though his interior scoring/finishing is fantastic) but averages, per-36 minutes, an impressive 9 assists and a staggering good 5.5 rebounds. When your point guard averages this many rebounds, the lives of teammates becomes that much easier. Fast-breaks can be started and finished faster than normal and efficiency sees an increase as well. Defensively, both players contribute to Boston's #1 defense in big ways. Statistically speaking, Allen has the advantage. He holds his counterpart to a lower PER and a lower average. However, this may be a case of statistics being a bit deceiving. Rondo is one of the better thieves in the league, averaging 2.3 steals per-36 minutes.

In terms of statistics (points, assists, rebounds), Rondo has the edge. If you look purely at scoring, Allen has the advantage. Defensively, I'll call it a wash. Team standing won't make an entrance in this comparison for apparent reasons. So what is the last criteria I could use to differentiate these two comparable Celtics? - team need. The Eastern Conference, whether fans want to believe so or not, needs a backup point guard, if for no other reason than balance. Yes, we can all point to the Jamaal Magloire selection of years' past and try to use it for every "team need" scenario, but that's a bad way of looking at it, in my opinion.

Rajon Rondo with the knockout punch on Sugar Ray.

I don't believe an egregious error was made, considering my vote was based on a tie-breaker, but if I was given the opportunity to select one player to replace the injured Jameer Nelson, Ray Allen would not be the guy.