Off-Season Movers and Shakers

With the Finals all but a distant memory, we enter one of the more interesting and exciting times for both NBA teams and fans - the off-season: where aged teams look to rebuild, where teams on the cusp look to enter the title conversation, and where faithful fanatics get another shot at hope for their team's future.

That is the norm for NBA off-seasons and this one has yet to disappoint. Memorable faces in new places is the name of the game. Most notably, the "Big Diesel" (or the big cactus or the big Aristotle or whatever he's known as today), Half-Man-Half-Amazing also known as Vince Carter, the former Buck and Net Richard Jefferson along with guards Randy Foye and Mike Miller who spent their 09-10 season in the frozen tundra of Minnesota.

In this post, I'll be writing about how each of the teams fared in their respective trades; who the winners and losers were, and what impact this could potentially have on their ball clubs.

Firstly, let's start out with the biggest name and the biggest player - Shaquille O'Neal. The Phoenix Suns sent him to Cleveland for Ben Wallace's expiring contract, Sasha Pavlovic and a 2010 2nd round draft pick. In other words, Cleveland got him for practically nothing. O'Neal will be joining yet another superstar-caliber swingman in LeBron James (keep in mind that in every stop of his NBA career, Shaq has had the privilege of playing with an elite guard - in Orlando, it was Penny. In Los Angeles, it was Kobe. In Miami, it was Wade and in Phoenix, it was Nash). The two of them will cause a lot of problems for opposing teams but is this really the move that elevates the Cavs to the undisputed favorites to win the championship? I happen to think not. Cleveland was already a 66-win team last season and the best regular season squad in the NBA. Had they not run into Dwight Howard and the mis-match Magic in the Eastern Conference Finals, they may very well have won the title. Unfortunately for them, the Magic played (to a lesser extent) the role of the Golden State Warriors to that of the Dallas Mavericks - a horrible match-up that proved to be their demise. In my not-so-expert opinion, I don't feel this move does anything to help them against Orlando with the exception of making life just a little tougher against Dwight. The Cavs' weakness in their series with the Magic was the pick-and-roll and as we all know, Shaq is notorious for his inability to defend it. His defense is on par with that of Big Z (Zydrunas Ilgauskas), though his post offense is obviously head-and-shoulders better. However, with Shaq, you lose the pick and pop option that LeBron had with Zydrunas, considering Ilgauskas is going to be getting significantly less minutes. Overall, I'm not a big fan of the trade if Cleveland's sole purpose was better matching up with Orlando. If the goal was to simply improve the team, then mission accomplished.

For Phoenix, it's apparently time to start over. They got rid of Shaq for pennies on the dollar and they are shopping Amar'e Stoudemire and Steve Nash. This move seemed inevitable. I honestly am not sure what Sarver and Kerr are doing but I'm sure the rest of the league is more than happy to let them keep doing it.

The next trade, as outlined in the opening of this blog post, is some Magic in Disney World. The New Jersey Nets shipped star guard Vince Carter and forward Ryan Anderson to the Orlando Magic for guards Courtney Lee, Rafer Alston and center Tony Battie.

I actually like this trade for both teams. New Jersey is clearly in rebuilding mode. Carter and his contract were only standing in the way of the youth movement happening in Jersey. In this deal, they get some cap-space and a talented, young swing-man in Courtney Lee who showed what he was made of in the CLE/ORL series this past playoffs (picture Lee slamming down some thunderous dunks on the LeBron James). He's already a solid offensive player and his defense is above-average, especially for a rookie. There may have been better deals on the table if the Nets waited a bit more but I think this one suits them just fine.

For Orlando, it's just another piece to the puzzle. Anyone who watched them in the Finals could see that they are in need of a star shooting guard who can carry the load on the perimeter (and slashing) and give Dwight some help from time to time. Carter to the Magic automatically make them one of the select few favorites to win the title next year, though losing Turkoglu does hurt, considering his versatility allowed them to run a big lineup with him as point guard.

Also in the news are the San Antonio Spurs - the model of an elite professional sports organization. The Spurs traded defensive stopper Bruce Bowen and centers Kurt Thomas and Fabricio Oberto to the Milwaukee Bucks in exchange for star forward Richard Jefferson.

It's a good move for the Spurs, don't get me wrong. But I do have reservations about how San Antonio management perceives Jefferson's ability. In data-tracking throughout the years, he's never notched a very high on/off differential nor has he amassed a particularly high PER (Player Efficiency Rating). Statistics can be deceiving every now and then but I'm a bit skeptical about his production. He seems like one of those players who has a knack for filling up the box-score without having a distinctly positive impact for his team.

This could all change in San Antonio, though. The Spurs have an immense amount of talent, a dominant low-post scorer, slashing threats and outside threats. By all means, the court will have opened up a substantial amount when Jefferson comes to town. He'll most likely be able to put up the numbers AND have a solid impact thanks, in large part, to his All-Star teammates. Understanding that the Spurs basically got him for nothing, it's hard to knock this trade for them. It's a nice move and classic Spurs.

For Milwaukee, this trade comes as no surprise. Their management has consistently been some of the worst in professional sports (notice the dichotomy here, heh). They handed a ridiculous contract to a one-dimensional, no-defense guard in Michael Redd and have failed to build a contending team in Wisconsin for as long as I can remember. Is it possible that Bucks' management is going to start all over and build from scratch (including selling low on Redd)? Possibly. If I were them, I'd consider that the only conceivable move, but knowing Milwaukee, they'll see another option.

Lastly, but certainly not least(ly?), we have the Wizards and Timberwolves who struck a deal just before the 2009 NBA Draft. Minnesota dealt third-year guard Randy Foye and sharp-shooter Mike Miller to the Washington Wizards for the Zards' 5th pick (which turned out to be Ricky Rubio), centers Etan Thomas and Oleksiy Pecherov and veteran forward Darius Songaila.

As a die-hard Wizards fan, this move is not earth-shattering but solid enough to make us easily the 4th-best team in the East (possibly better, but not likely). It will, health permitting, yield 50 wins and a 2nd-round playoff birth. But it fails to address one pressing need - defense. Neither Foye nor Miller are noted defenders and both will be major parts of our rotation. Unless this deal is proceeded by another move that could net us a more defensive-oriented roster, I can't say I'm all that impressed. Arenas/Miller/Butler/Jamison/Haywood is one of the worst defensive lineups in the NBA (save for Haywood) and unless Flip Saunders and company is a miracle-worker on the defensive end of the floor, this team will score 105pts and give up nearly the same amount. Then there's the salary issue. We acquired two players who will need to be re-upped next season. Will we have the money to do so? Will Honest Abe Pollin be willing to shell out luxury tax dollars to keep a 50-win team intact? Will keeping them cost us a much more valuable player like Brendan Haywood who is ready for a new contract at the same time? Only time will tell but there had better be a fool-proof plan in place or else this will come back to bite us in the butt.

Switching gears, Minnesota made a pretty good trade. With the 5th pick, they selected the Spanish sensation Ricky Rubio (a player with top-2 talent). Rubio will not be able to play for one, maybe two years but Minnesota is in a very rare position - one where they can afford to wait for the kid to come over. Most teams are busy building for a playoff run or trying to contend that they simply do not have the option of waiting for a top-5 pick to fall into their laps. Also in this trade, the T-Wolves acquired Etan Thomas (expiring contract) Oleksiy Pecherov (expiring contract) and Darius Songaila (savvy veteran who will be a valuable addition to a team full of young, inexperienced players).

Up to this point, this NBA off-season has been one of the more memorable and thrilling ones to date. Big-name players didn't just get rumored to leave town, they actually packed their bags and hopped on the plane! Will the Cavs get that final push to the title and keep their super-star, LeBron James? Can the Magic establish themselves as more than a one-hit-wonder? Are the Wizards going to be the surprise team of the season and take their place among the East's elite? These, and many more questions, will be answered in the year to come. But hey - the off-season isn't over yet....

Congrats, Los Angeles!

Congratulations to the Los Angeles Lakers, your 2008-2009 NBA Champions. It's no secret I had my doubts as to the mental toughness and group cohesion of the Lakers. Following a match-up against the Houston Rockets that unexpectedly went a thrilling seven games. Houston was, at the time, missing Tracy McGrady due to injury and lost their superstar center Yao Ming just games into the series, but, in true underdog fashion, pushed the West's #1 seed to the max. Kobe Bryant was held to pedestrian numbers (by his standards) and Pau Gasol had moments of embarrassment when defending opposing big, Luis Scola.

They did manage to win game-7 rather convincingly at home behind a ruckus Staples Center Crowd.

This led to the Western Conference Finals where they met up with a familiar foe - Chauncey Billups of the Denver Nuggets (formerly of the Detroit Pistons, the team he spearheaded when, in 2003-2004, the Pistons upset the Lakers to win the NBA championship). Denver would get strong performances from both Billups and Anthony and managed to make the series more than interesting through the first few games, tying the series at 1-1 and stealing a game in Los Angeles. But the Lakers proved why they were the best in the West as they were too much for a Nuggets team that was simply over-matched. The defining moment, perhaps, was Kobe Bryant's game-3 heroics in which he nailed a critical crunch-time 3 that practically won the game for L.A. They wrapped up the series in six games and were Western Conference Champs yet again.

All of that led us to the 2009 NBA Finals that pitted Kobe and company against the under-dog Orlando Magic who just came off an impressive series win against LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers. Much like the Denver match-up, Los Angeles was pushed to the limits early on. They won game-one easily but when game-two came around, Orlando made it clear that they weren't going to back down. But despite their greatest efforts, including 34 points from Rashard Lewis, Kobe Bryant had the last laugh and closed the game as he does so often. As the series shifted to Orlando, so too did the momentum. Suddenly, the Magic were the ones looking to make some noise and quickly took the first game at their house. As game-four rolled around, Orlando was looking to tie the series and looked as if they were about to do so. They captured a comfortable 3-point lead with just seconds remaining and had the ball. Dwight Howard was promptly fouled and sent to the line. A poor free throw shooter throughout his entire career, Howard clanked both and Los Angeles quickly called timeout. At this point, all the Magic had to do was not give up a 3-pointer and they'd surely win. But with time ticking down and Derek Fisher dribbling up the court, the unthinkable happened - Jameer Nelson gave Fish just enough room to get off a clear look and to the dismay of 20,000+ at Amway Arena, the shot was money.

The Lakers captured a 3-1 lead and never looked back. The title-clinching win came in game-5 and despite Dwight Howard's pre-game promise of a win (a "guaransheed" of sorts), Kobe Bryant turned out a simply phenomenal performance as the win was at no point in doubt.

They did what I thought they couldn't do - beat their opponents not just physically but mentally. The Lakers proved that they could get a lead in a series and not feel like it was in the bag, but keep on pushing. This was no more evident than on the face of their team, Kobe Bryant, who in numerous post-game press conferences had a one-track mind and singular focus - winning at all costs. That's what it takes to be a champion.

Of course it would be wrong to go through an entire blog post and not congratulate the other members of the Lakers, not just Kobe Bryant. Namely, Pau Gasol who was Pippen-esque in his excellence as a 2nd-option. His numbers were on par with most teams' first-options. Also of note, Trevor Ariza who was the stabling force for Los Angeles. Timely steals, big defensive plays, clutch 3's - you need it, Ariza delivered. And lastly, Derek Fisher who had the defining moment of the NBA Finals - his shot that sent game-4 into overtime, where Los Angeles took a commanding lead in the series.

So many times, we get too caught up in the star power of a particular team or series and put everyone else to the side. While Kobe Bryant was fantastic throughout, he'll be the first to admit that he never could have gotten to that point without the help of his supporting cast.

Once again, congratulations to the Lakers and their fans - a well-deserved championship.

Orlando Trying To Overcome The Odds

After months of preliminary rounds, the NBA Finals are upon us as the Lakers have taken an early 2-0 lead in their series against the Orlando Magic. In the first two games, Kobe Bryant has been sensational and Pau Gasol has been the ideal second option. Meanwhile for the Magic, Dwight Howard has underperformed and their role players, specifically perimeter shooters, have failed to connect as they did in subsequent rounds. Rashard Lewis has been their only player that's stepped his respective game up but it hasn't been enough to steal a game in La-La Land.

Statistically, when the home team wins the first two games of a best-of-seven series, a stunning 94.2% go on to win the series. This bodes well for the Lakers but is it possible that the Magic could be one of the 5.8% that beat those tremendous odds? Well, it's happened three times before and one time very recently. In 2006, the eventual champion Miami Heat dropped the first two games of their NBA Finals series against the power-house Dallas Mavericks. But as we well know, Dwyane Wade turned in a magnificent performance and the Heat went on to capture their first title as an NBA franchise.

Orlando is looking to repeat history. With a stellar 32-9 record playing at home, the Magic are hoping for a bounce-back effort from Dwight Howard and the perimeter role players. For a team that takes on adversity like it's nobody's business, they are poised for an upset. Each round of the playoffs has presented a unique set of challenges and obstacles for the Magic. In round-one, the Philadelphia 76'ers had an unexpected 2-1 lead in the series, heading into game-four at their house. But Orlando re-grouped and won game-four, then going on to win the next two, ending the series in six games.

In round-two, they took on the Boston Celtics. After five games, the Celtics took a commanding 3-2 lead. The Magic could have quit then and there but overcame the odds and won the next two games including a rout of Boston in game-seven.

As round-three emerged, so to did the NBA's best regular season team, the Cleveland Cavaliers and their MVP, LeBron James. But Cleveland's #1 ranking didn't phase Orlando as they controlled the series from the get-go, despite some questionable officiating.

So here we have it, the NBA Finals. And here Orlando is, down two games to zip. I'm not saying the Lakers are going to lose this series but it's hard to count the scrappy Magic out of it, despite what the historical numbers dictate. However, Orlando cannot count on home-cooking to get themselves back into this series - a mistake the Nuggets made against this very same Lakers team in the Conference Finals. Adjustments must be made. First and foremost, pick up the tempo. With the long-range gunners and athletes the Magic have, putting up an average of 85.5 points won't cut it. Get the offense going, create fast-break opportunities and run the floor. The Magic also must cut down on their turnovers, especially their big-man Dwight Howard. Once the pressure comes (and it inevitably will when the ball is fed to Superman down low), make a quick pass out to the open perimeter players. If and when that player receives the ball, don't be afraid to make the extra pass. One of the most underrated aspects of an offensive system is the pass that leads to a pass that leads to a made field goal.

The Magic are at a disadvantage, this much is certain. But that squad is no stranger to overcoming the odds and getting the most out of their players. With the proper adjustments, a change of venue and maybe a little more help from the zebras, we might be looking at a 2-2 series going into the crucial game-five.

A Brief Rant - ESPN Marketing

I'm not someone who complains often regarding how large corporations handle their business. Why? Because they are always going to do what's in their own best interests and, in general, they won't make bad financial decisions. They do their research, they put in the time and they deliver a strong product that has a very low chance of failure.

But here is one instance where I think ESPN, the self-proclaimed "World-wide leader in sports" is making a big mistake. No, I'm not talking about firing Screamin' Stephen A. Smith from their telecasts - what I am referencing is their generous daily serving of LeBron James and Kobe Bryant down the collective throats of the American public.

Listen, I'm not an idiot - I realize that the NBA is a star's league and that recognizable faces in this sport, more than others, sell tickets, merchandise and an overall solid product. It's because of this that I've lived with LeBron and Kobe leading off "SportsCenter" for the better part of the regular season and why I fully expected them to follow suit in the post-season. But to my surprise, they (ESPN) took their respective game up another notch - something I didn't think was humanly possible. From their website to their television programs to their magazine to their broadcasted games, we don't just get Kobe and/or LeBron as the lead-off story, we get Kobe and/or LeBron as the entire show. To put it into perspective, the Orlando Magic, just a few nights ago, won game-3 of their series to take a 2-1 lead. Yet, I'd say a good 4/5ths of SportsCenter's coverage of the game was focused on Cleveland and LeBron; "How can Cleveland come back?" "What did the Cavs do wrong?" "Can LeBron save them from this deficit?" Nothing about how well the Magic played; nothing about a great team effort.

Ever heard of the expression "Everything in moderation"? Yeah, ESPN hasn't. With their constant, incessant, seemingly endless barrage of all things Kobe/LeBron, the informed NBA fan has been overloaded to the point where they feel the need to write to ESPN, speak out against what they're doing and, yes, even blog about it (*looks at self in mirror*). To say that ESPN, the NBA and all other media forms want a Lakers/Cavaliers NBA Finals is to say that the sky is blue and that the pope is Catholic.

But is this over-indulgence, this excessive marketing campaign really in the best interest of the league and of the media outlets hyping it to no end? This blogger says a resounding "NO!". What it does is pander to the lowest-common-denominator in terms of NBA fans - the casual fans who know of teams but don't follow; who know only of the cream-of-the-crop-type-players and couldn't differentiate a Rashard Lewis from a Michael Ruffin. This is ESPN's target audience. So, instead of doing everything in their power to enlighten the casual fan as to who Dwight Howard is, who Carmelo Anthony is, and more importantly who the Magic and Nuggets are as teams and not individuals, what ESPN does is force-feed two of the most recognizable players in American sports (Kobe/LeBron) down our throats, planning on a Lakers/Cavaliers NBA Finals.

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Uh-oh, look what's coming to bite ESPN (et al) in their collective butts - a potential Magic/Nuggets Finals. How's that for irony?

Instead of branding the NBA as a team-sport, or at the very least, introducing the casual fan to more than two players and two teams, there may be a storm a'brewing. With the Nuggets playing arguably the best basketball in franchise history, tying the series at two games a-piece, and the Magic looking for a 3-1 lead tonight (Tuesday, May 26th), the NBA's worst nightmare may very well come to fruition. And if it does, get ready for a massive clean-up attempt by the media outlets (ESPN specifically) the likes of which you've never seen. Get ready for one of the, if not the least-watched NBA Finals of all-time. But most importantly, get ready to watch me play the world's smallest violin outside ESPN headquarters in Bristol, CT, because they earned every sweet note.

Predictions: NBA Conference Finals

(1) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (3) Orlando Magic

A Cavs/Celtics match-up might have garner higher ratings but I guarantee (check it...guaransheed) that the Magic will give the NBA's best team their biggest challenge. In the regular season, Orlando won the series 2-1, including a decisive routing on April 3rd (116-87). From a distance, it would appear that Dwight Howard gives Cleveland more trouble than most and that the Magic defense (which ranked #1 in the NBA this season - something ESPN won't tell you) has formed an effective strategy on keeping LeBron somewhat in check.

But you can already hear Cleveland's rebuttal, and it's hard to argue against them - the playoffs are a different beast. Throw regular season success out of the window because when the Eastern Conference Finals begin on May 20th, you can bet the Cavs' collective memory will have done the same.

Cleveland has something no other team has - a player who can do whatever he wants whenever he wants however he wants. Players like Dwight Howard, Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade and Chris Paul are all tremendous players and superstars in their own right but they are a clear step behind James who makes pure dominance look almost effortless. With him on your side, you will be in every ball-game.

What will, ultimately prove to be key in this series is home-court advantage. Cleveland, since they are the one-seed, will have it. That means that the Cavs, who nearly broke an NBA-record for regular-season home win percentage, don't necessarily need to win any road games if they can protect their house.

I see this series going at the very least six games. Those picking the Magic in seven are foolish, in my opinion. If Orlando is winning this series, it will be in six games because LeBron James is not losing game-seven at "The Q" no matter who the competition is.

Prediction: The Cleveland Cavaliers in 7
Bolder Prediction: Neither team loses at home





(1) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (2) Denver Nuggets

There are a few things I know about this series. The first is that, if the most talented team won, it would clearly be Los Angeles. The second is that talent isn't everything. What I saw from the Lakers in their previous round against the Houston Rockets is that they are not a mentally tough team. Once Yao Ming went down from injury, the Lakers should have gotten more hungry, not less. They should have licked their chops to demoralize a depleted Rockets squad. But they didn't. What really happened was that they lost all energy and focus. They got complacent. They got cocky. They thought they could turn "it" on whenever they wanted and, to their surprise, they ran into a team that played with heart and pride. The series went seven games and proved to the league that the Western Conference powerhouse was indeed vulnerable.

So here we have a new challenger for Los Angeles - the Denver Nuggets. Denver has been a playoff team for a while now but have always lacked the mental focus and leadership to guide them to a deep run. Enter: Chauncey Billups - the floor general, Mr. Big Shot and the key to Denver possibly surprising the Lake-show. With Carmelo Anthony playing, arguably, the best ball of his career, the Nuggets are poised to make some noise.

Offense? Check.
Defense? Surprisingly, check.
Deep bench? Check (boasting J.R Swish and the Birdman, Chris Anderson)
Coaching? Check.

It would see that all the pieces are in place. All that's left is proving the doubters wrong. Keep in mind that it's no coincidence that this Nuggets team was able to capture the 2nd seed in a tough Western Conference. They really are a well-built team who will not back down to anyone.

Now, I'm not saying that the Lakers aren't going to win this series, despite the somewhat critical tone I've taken towards them in this post. It very well may be that the LAL/HOU series is just what they needed - a wake-up call and reminder that without focus, talent might not get you where you want to be. That's certainly the position Southern California is collectively taking right now. But I have my doubts. Between the Lakers' questionable desire and the Nuggets' recent surge, this should be a tightly contested series.

Prediction: The Los Angeles Lakers in 6

2009 NBA Playoff Predictions - Round 1 Edition

My friends, it's that time again. The NBA Playoffs - where champions are made and pretenders are sent home. It's a time to celebrate all that's right with the league - the passion, the excitement, the rivalries, the trash talking. No teams battling for the worst record in hopes of that #1 pick here. Just one vision; one goal - an NBA Championship.

This year's version of the NBA Playoffs provides plenty of intriguing story-lines and match-ups and I will be giving my own predictions for each of the 1st-round contests. Let's start out with the Eastern Conference.


(1) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (8) Detroit Pistons

I'm not sure whether it's my inherent dislike for all things Cleveland or not, but I feel like the Pistons have a shot at giving the Cavaliers a run for their money. This has been one of the NBA's better rivalries over the past few years so if you think Detroit is going into this series ready to wave the white flag, I think you have another thing coming. Their core of players, minus Billups, are still there and their title experience cannot be overlooked. For the Cavs, they are the unquestioned favorites and have earned the right to be seen as such. With an NBA-best record of 66-16 and a home record of 39-2, it's their series to lose. What I'll be looking for is the following - Will Tayshaun Prince have any effectiveness guarding and slowing down LeBron James? How will Mo Williams play in his first post-season series with the Cavaliers? Can anyone other than Hamilton, Prince and Wallace take their respective game to another level?

What's funny about this series is that the injured Allen Iverson (who is out) had the most success with the Pistons when playing against the Cavaliers. How's that for irony?

Prediction - Cleveland wins the series, 4-2.



(2) Boston Celtics vs. (7) Chicago Bulls

A thoroughly uninteresting series just days ago has now turned into a match-up that begs the question - Can Boston get by the 1st round without their superstar, Kevin Garnett? I must admit, it's a question I ask as well. It's not easy to take an offensive/defense/vocal force, put him on the bench and have your team be expected to win on the toughest stage. The Celtics are going to have to have a few things happen to win. Firstly, they need Pierce and Allen to take on more of the scoring load. We all know that the Big Three have sacrificed their respective games in the best interest of the team, but that gets thrown out of the window, here. They need to be much more offensively aggressive. Secondly, role players must change their roles. Glen Davis and Leon Powe can no longer be solid reserves. They must be starting-caliber players who can consistently contribute with interior scoring and defense.

For the Bulls to win this series, they're going to need a non-Rookie showing from Derrick Rose, Tyrus Thomas to show consistency and aggressiveness and lastly, a young team transforming from a bunch of talented individuals to a true, cohesive team.

Prediction - Boston wins the series, 4-3.



(3) Orlando Magic vs. (6) Philadelphia 76'ers

You have to respect the 76'ers. They signed Elton Brand to a massive, long-term contract last off-season and expected him to be a huge factor throughout the entirety of this season. Unfortunately, he was only able to suit up for 29 games and will be out for the playoffs, including Philadelphia's 1st-round match-up against the deadly Orlando Magic. But they took the loss in stride and have made the most out of a key injury, finishing 6th in the East. The two "Andre"s (Miller and Iguodala) will need to have career performances and 2nd-year player Thaddeus Young will need continue his stellar play for the 6'ers to have a shot at upsetting.

But I just don't see it happening. Orlando is tried and tested. They are an elite squad on both ends of the floor and have one of the league's true superstars in center Dwight Howard. I don't see Philadelphia being able to handle Superman down low, though Sam Dalembert may play him better than most. And Philadelphia will find it difficult to score on the Magic's number-one-ranked defense.

Prediction - Orlando wins the series, 4-1.



(4) Atlanta Hawks vs. (5) Miami Heat

This should prove to be the most entertaining series of the 1st round, as most 4/5 match-ups are. We have the better team (Atlanta) sans superstar-caliber player, against the worse team (Miami) with Dwyane Wade. The question is - what wins out? Team talent or individual talent? I'm of the thinking that in the playoffs, when two teams are as close as these two are (one being a 4-seed, the other a 5-seed), the outcome of the series is dependent on the superstar(s). Dwyane Wade has been there and done that. He's won a championship and knows what it takes to beat the odds. His play this season has been nothing short of remarkable and though I'd still cast my vote for LeBron James, my 2nd place vote would go to the Miami Heat star. If Wade raises his game to the level I expect and the Heat get average contributions from their other go-to players such as Jermaine O'Neal and Udonis Haslem, they will be tough to beat.

For the Hawks, home-court is big. They were 31-10 this season at the friendly confines of Phillips Arena. They will need a total team effort to fend off the Heat. Joe Johnson has had a solid season but a continuation of his regular-season performance will not suffice. Ditto to Josh Smith. The X-factor for Atlanta will be Mike Bibby. Can he stick the open jumpshots that Johnson and Smith will give him?

Prediction - Miami wins the series, 4-3.

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My Eastern Conference 2nd-round bracket looks as follows...

(1) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (5) Miami Heat
(2) Boston Celtics vs. (3) Orlando Magic

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Now let's move to the wild, wild Western Conference.



(1) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (8) Utah Jazz

There is no such thing as an easy series in the West. Every team that makes the playoffs has some sort of shot at winning their series. The Jazz are finally getting healthy (Boozer is back) and yes, they still have Deron Williams. If the Jazz, a team who, coming into this season was seen as a title contender, can get their groove back, this might be a very interesting series and a potential monumental upset. The Lakers are getting healthy as well. Just recently, center Andrew Bynum has made his return and is contributing off the bat. For a team that came within games of a championship last season without Bynum, you have to feel that a rather serious edge goes to Los Angeles in this case.

Prediction - Los Angeles wins, 4-2.



(2) Denver Nuggets vs. (7) New Orleans Hornets

Now this is a series I have my eye on. Normally, 2/7 match-ups aren't of the most interest or drama, but the Hornets are a team that has been ravaged by injuries all season long, and still managed to compete night in and night out. Chris Paul is a game-changer and can win a series all by his lonesome in my not-so-expert opinion. David West is playing good basketball as well, and if they can get Tyson Chandler back in game shape (he made his return on April 16th), they will be a force to be reckoned with.

The Nuggets, on the other hand, have been living the good life, this year. After trading guard Allen Iverson for a true point guard and leader in Chauncey Billups, they have experienced great success to the tune of 54 wins. They are not just a high-scoring group anymore - they are also the 8th-best defensive team in the league, allowing just 106.8pts per 100 possessions.

Prediction - New Orleans wins series, 4-2.



(3) San Antonio Spurs vs. (6) Dallas Mavericks

You have to feel for San Antonio. Gregg Popovich has done everything in his power to give his triumvirate of stars as much rest as possible, including holding them out of certain regular season games. But due to increasing age and more miles than a 98 Honda Civic, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili might be the fall of the Spurs this post-season. Ginobili is out for the playoffs and Duncan is not 100% or anywhere close to it. For the Spurs to win this series, Duncan is going to need to, somehow, forget that he's 32 and Tony Parker is going to need to carry the team from the point guard position. Every one of their role players must need to do their job to perfection and a 3rd scorer must be established (I'm looking at you, Michael Finley).

For the Mavericks, I believe that, even without the home-court advantage, they have the edge in this series. Their play as of late has been much better than their 50-32 record would indicate. If I had to place a number on it, I'd say they're playing like a 60-win team right now, and will be hard to stop. Kidd has found his niche, Nowitzki is playing like the superstar he is and Josh Howard is back and healthy. It also helps that they have the probable 6th-Man-Of-The-Year in Jason (JET) Terry.

Prediction - Dallas wins the series, 4-2.



(4) Portland Trail Blazers vs. (5) Houston Rockets

Yet another ultra-interesting series out West. You have to feel good about Portland this season. After such a tumultuous stretch of years highlighted by player-arrests, suspensions, drug-charges, fighting and more, they finally have a team to be proud of. A team that you don't just root for because of geographical location but because they're a bunch of good, fun-loving people. The Blazers are making their first playoff appearance since 2003 and also have a healthy Greg Oden who's effectiveness cannot be overlooked. They have the most effective and efficient offense in the league, which is what makes this match-up so fun - the Rockets possess one of the NBA's elite defenses.

Houston is the classic example of a team turning lemons into lemonade. Down goes Tracy McGrady and up goes the Rocket-record. Their team cohesion is sky-high and they will not be an easy out, despite being the lower seed. When you have a player like Yao Ming on your team, you have a shot. What I question about the Rockets is point guard play. Is Aaron Brooks enough to hold down the fort?

Prediction - Portland wins the series, 4-3.


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My Western Conference 2nd-round bracket looks as follows...

(1) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (4) Portland Trail Blazers
(6) Dallas Mavericks vs. (7) New Orleans Hornets

Flip Saunders To Our Nation's Capital

It was announced today that the Washington Wizards and coach Flip Saunders have verbally agreed to a four-year contract that will be worth a reported 18-million dollars - a high price but a highly sought-after, respected and successful coach.

But is Saunders the right coach for this team? I'm torn on that particular question. Flip is clearly an above-average coach. He is renown for his masterful offensive schemes, strategies and principles. He has a personality that will not conflict with the team's stars - Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison. He has a history of winning at a respectable clip and he has experience which cannot be overlooked considering he's taking over a veteran-laden ball-club.

However, one of the things Saunders is not renown for is his defensive strategies which have been characterized as gimmicky and gambling. These defenses, many of which are zone, will gamble for steals and play quasi-dangerously - something that might work with ball-hawks like Arenas and Butler. I question whether this will help the Wizards come playoff time, when the opposing team has 4-7 attempts at successfully game-planning against them.

Saunders, for as good a career winning percentage as he is credited with, has always had a problem winning the more important, crucial games. When coach of the Minnesota Timberwolves, they made it out of the first round just once. He then headed to Detroit, fresh off an NBA Championship, and couldn't get past the Eastern Conference Finals (though credit must be given just getting to that point).

From everything that I just typed, Flip seems awfully reminiscent of the Wizards' last full-time coach - Eddie Jordan. True, he (Saunders) is a better version but their styles, their strategies, their strengths, their weaknesses - it's all so similar. As you may or may not remember, Jordan was known for implementing the Wizards with one of the most successful offenses in the league. He also had excellent rapport with his players - players who defend their former coach to this day. Unfortunately for Coach Eddie, he had one glaring problem. He was defensively challenged. His brilliant strategy to "Protect the Paint" did nothing but have Wizards players frantically scrambling out to 3pt shooters in a desperate, unsuccessful attempt to stick a hand in their face. It was literally like watching chickens with their heads cut off (excuse the graphic analogy). The Wizards, under Eddie Jordan, were one of the worst teams in NBA history at defending the 3pt line and hold NBA records for most threes given up in a season.

The choice of Flip Saunders is a safe, unspectacular selection. He will likely lead the Wizards to a 45-50-win record and a potential 2nd-round playoff birth. He won't cause any problems and will be regarded as a brilliant move by Washington GM Ernie Grunfeld. Will the Wizards get exponentially better under the command of Coach Flip? Probably not, but they will get better and that's what most fans are looking for. Personally? I would have liked to seen Grunfeld go after a coach that offers what the Wizards and any team with aspirations of hanging a championship banner need - defense. Tom Thibodeau was a guy I had my eye on as potential coach. He didn't have the experience and we don't know much about him but what we do know is that he is a defensive guru/mastermind. For a team as defensively challenged as the Wizards, he would have been my choice.