The Race To 8th

We're about one month away from the ultimate test of basketball fortitude - the NBA Playoffs. And though there are quite a few teams who have their Playoff ticket stamped, we also have those battling it out for the coveted final spot. In the East, Milwaukee is currently sitting at 8th, followed by five teams - all of which are two and a half games back or less. This blog post will be covering my predictions on who will get that final spot in the Eastern Conference and who, as EJ, Kenny and Charles would say, will be "goin' fishin'".

I will not cover the Western Conference because, in my professional opinion (cue laugh-track), the eight spots have all been determined with just the order left to question. Phoenix is the 9th seed and will not catch up as they have dug themselves a 4-game hole - one a tad too deep to get out of.

Let's get started....

Cleveland, Boston, Orlando, Atlanta and Miami are virtual locks. Detroit will most likely get in (if they can conveniently keep Iverson 'injured' just a few more weeks) as they are starting to hit their stride. The 76'ers are 33-31 and winners of their last three games. I have them in as well.

Then we move to the Milwaukee Bucks. It's hard to see them holding on to the 8th seed. They're gritty and determined, to be sure, but talent certainly helps and it's something that they simply do not have at the moment. Two of their three-best players, Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut, are both out for the season. In the hunt are the Chicago Bulls (30-37), New York Knicks (28-38), Charlotte Bobcats (29-38), New Jersey Nets (28-38) and Indiana Pacers (28-40).

The Indiana Pacers have a shot, despite public perception. They lack a legitimate 2nd-option scorer but are neither atrociously bad on defense (19th) or offense (19th). 11 of their final 14 games are at home where they are an impressive 19-12. I expect them to win about 8 of their final 14 games and finish with a record of 36-46. This may be enough to just squeeze into the playoffs.

The New York Knicks aren't quite as fortunate. They are one game ahead of the Pacers and just 1.5 games behind the Bucks for 8th, but play half of their remaining 16 games at home and half on the road. However, their competition is tough to say the least, including three match-ups with the Magic, along with games against Western Conference powerhouses such as the Hornets, Jazz and Nuggets. They are slightly above-average on offense (13th) but pretty bad on defense (23th). I predict about 7 more wins out of the Knicks this year, putting them at 35-47, and securely out of playoff contention.

The New Jersey Nets are in the midst of a three-game losing streak and are one of the rare teams who possess the same record on the road as at home (both 14-19). Looking at the rest of their schedule, the Nets play some of the league's elite teams. They will face the Cavaliers twice, the Lakers, the Magic and the Nuggets to name a few. Considering their recent woes, I see a 5-11 record which would get them to a 33-49 and out of the playoff race.

The Charlotte Bobcats are the 10th seed in the East. But don't let their sub-par record fool you. Ever since the mid-season deal that sent Jason Richardson to the Suns for forward Boris Diaw, they have played above .500 basketball. The 'Cats are an impressive 7-3 in their last 10 games. However, with just 15 games remaining in their unexpectedly non-sucky season, 9 of them are on the road. But on the bright side, the competition in these final 15 games is not what you'd call daunting with just two games being against the top-4 seeds in both conferences (one against the Lakers, the other against Boston). I'm actually calling an 8-7 finish to Charlotte's season, which would leave them with a 37-45 record, and ahead of my 36-46 record prediction for Indiana.

Lastly, we have the Chicago Bulls. They are 9th in the East and tied with Milwaukee for 8th. With the devastating injuries to the Bucks' stars, it is most likely Chicago's playoff spot to lose. They have 15 games remaining and 11 of which are at home, where they possess a 20-11 record. Better yet for Bulls fans, their remaining games are A) against fairly weak competition and B) against the teams they are battling with for that 8th seed. I expect a 9-6 finish, at worst, for Chicago which would leave them with a final record of 39-43.

My Eastern Conference Final Standings....

1. Cleveland Cavaliers
2. Orlando Magic (upset city, baby)
3. Boston Celtics
4. Atlanta Hawks
5. Miami Heat
6. Detroit Pistons
7. Philadelphia 76'ers
8. Chicago Bulls
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9. Charlotte Bobcats
10. Indiana Pacers
11. New York Knicks
12. Milwaukee Bucks
13. New Jersey Nets
14. Toronto Raptors
15. Washington Wizards (sigh...)

Mid-Season Free Agent Acquisition Grades

Drew Gooden (Spurs)

Grade: B+

Reasoning: Consistent as they come, the Spurs are 2nd in a tough Western Conference and are predictably rock-solid on defense. They rank 5th in defensive efficiency, allowing just 104.3pts per 100 possessions. But there is a problem in San Antonio - they do not have a championship-caliber offense. Yes, they have Duncan, Parker and a hobbled Manu Ginobili but lack the depth and overall talent of previous title seasons. They sit at a very pedestrian 14th in the league in offensive efficiency and, with the exception of Duncan, have no legitimate post options. In fact, other than Tim, they don't really have any legitimate big men, unless you count what's left of Kurt Thomas. Enter: Drew Gooden. Aside from the hideous beard, Gooden is just what the doctor ordered for the Spurs. He can shoot the mid-range jumper, he can play in the low-post and he can rebound. He'll take pressure off of the Big-3 with consistent play. Why not an "A" grade? The man is defensively deficient, though with "The Big Fundamental" on the floor, Gooden's tail should be covered.



Joe Smith (Cavaliers)

Grade: A

Reasoning: The Cavaliers have gone from tier to tier each season in the LeBron James era. At first, they were border-line playoff-caliber, then a playoff team who found an easy path to the Finals but came up short, and have now entered "elite" status. They are leading the Eastern Conference and are 2nd only to the Lakers for best record in the NBA. I liken the Joe Smith acquisition to the old phrase "The rich get richer". Smith is the ideal role player. He sticks the open jumper. He is a good post defender and help defender. He can work from the post, he's a wise veteran and he's good for team chemistry. What Smith provides, most of all, is consistent offense off of the bench. Before the signing, Cleveland brought (and will continue to bring) Anderson Varejao off the pine, but for as good as AV is, he isn't a scorer, much less a consistent one. They also turned to rookie JJ Hickson from time to time. Excellent addition for the Cavs.



Luther Head (Heat)

Grade: D

Reasoning: I'm not sure how this helps the Heat or gives them any extra push. Head is an undersized shooting guard who is experiencing a terrible season. Last year, he was at least respectable from an offensive standpoint, posting a PER of 13.4 and shooting sky-high percentages. Last year's Luther Head could potentially help Miami by giving them another scorer. But they didn't acquire last year's Luther Head. They acquired the one who's PER is at a miserable 9.8, and who is shooting an eFG% of just 45.5%. And as has been mentioned, he's not a point guard (a position the Heat could actually use). He doesn't have great ball-handling skills and isn't a particularly good passer, averaging 3.9 assists per-36 minutes, to go along with nearly 2 turnovers. However, I don't think the Heat are going into this seeing him as a savior or a big-time role player, and it's not as if he's being paid max money. Still, a questionable choice of players.



Mikki Moore (Celtics)

Grade: B

Reasoning: He works hard. He is an efficient scorer and he won't get in the way of the Big-3. The Celtics are having another great year but with the loss of James Posey and P.J Brown are in need of bench support. Moore, in many aspects, provides this. Mikki, just a few seasons ago, led the NBA in fg% while with the New Jersey Nets. He knows the difference between a good shot and a bad shot, but equally as important, he knows his role. A solid, unspectacular signing.



Stephon Marbury (Celtics)

Grade: B+

Reasoning: I won't go into much detail as to my feelings on this signing, considering the previous blog post was all about it, but suffice to say, it's a good move. The Celtics need bench help if they want to make it two titles in a row. Marbury wants to go somewhere where he can build up his perceived character - match made in heaven. He was signed to the veteran's minimum so it's not as if he will be a thorn in their side if he regresses back to the Stephon Marbury of the Knicks. Boston will simply cut him and never look back. The only reason this acquisition isn't an "A" is because, like Gooden, Marbury has a problem playing defense and on a team that prides themselves on dominant defense, it might be hard for Steph to fit in quickly or at all.