Off-Season Movers and Shakers

With the Finals all but a distant memory, we enter one of the more interesting and exciting times for both NBA teams and fans - the off-season: where aged teams look to rebuild, where teams on the cusp look to enter the title conversation, and where faithful fanatics get another shot at hope for their team's future.

That is the norm for NBA off-seasons and this one has yet to disappoint. Memorable faces in new places is the name of the game. Most notably, the "Big Diesel" (or the big cactus or the big Aristotle or whatever he's known as today), Half-Man-Half-Amazing also known as Vince Carter, the former Buck and Net Richard Jefferson along with guards Randy Foye and Mike Miller who spent their 09-10 season in the frozen tundra of Minnesota.

In this post, I'll be writing about how each of the teams fared in their respective trades; who the winners and losers were, and what impact this could potentially have on their ball clubs.

Firstly, let's start out with the biggest name and the biggest player - Shaquille O'Neal. The Phoenix Suns sent him to Cleveland for Ben Wallace's expiring contract, Sasha Pavlovic and a 2010 2nd round draft pick. In other words, Cleveland got him for practically nothing. O'Neal will be joining yet another superstar-caliber swingman in LeBron James (keep in mind that in every stop of his NBA career, Shaq has had the privilege of playing with an elite guard - in Orlando, it was Penny. In Los Angeles, it was Kobe. In Miami, it was Wade and in Phoenix, it was Nash). The two of them will cause a lot of problems for opposing teams but is this really the move that elevates the Cavs to the undisputed favorites to win the championship? I happen to think not. Cleveland was already a 66-win team last season and the best regular season squad in the NBA. Had they not run into Dwight Howard and the mis-match Magic in the Eastern Conference Finals, they may very well have won the title. Unfortunately for them, the Magic played (to a lesser extent) the role of the Golden State Warriors to that of the Dallas Mavericks - a horrible match-up that proved to be their demise. In my not-so-expert opinion, I don't feel this move does anything to help them against Orlando with the exception of making life just a little tougher against Dwight. The Cavs' weakness in their series with the Magic was the pick-and-roll and as we all know, Shaq is notorious for his inability to defend it. His defense is on par with that of Big Z (Zydrunas Ilgauskas), though his post offense is obviously head-and-shoulders better. However, with Shaq, you lose the pick and pop option that LeBron had with Zydrunas, considering Ilgauskas is going to be getting significantly less minutes. Overall, I'm not a big fan of the trade if Cleveland's sole purpose was better matching up with Orlando. If the goal was to simply improve the team, then mission accomplished.

For Phoenix, it's apparently time to start over. They got rid of Shaq for pennies on the dollar and they are shopping Amar'e Stoudemire and Steve Nash. This move seemed inevitable. I honestly am not sure what Sarver and Kerr are doing but I'm sure the rest of the league is more than happy to let them keep doing it.

The next trade, as outlined in the opening of this blog post, is some Magic in Disney World. The New Jersey Nets shipped star guard Vince Carter and forward Ryan Anderson to the Orlando Magic for guards Courtney Lee, Rafer Alston and center Tony Battie.

I actually like this trade for both teams. New Jersey is clearly in rebuilding mode. Carter and his contract were only standing in the way of the youth movement happening in Jersey. In this deal, they get some cap-space and a talented, young swing-man in Courtney Lee who showed what he was made of in the CLE/ORL series this past playoffs (picture Lee slamming down some thunderous dunks on the LeBron James). He's already a solid offensive player and his defense is above-average, especially for a rookie. There may have been better deals on the table if the Nets waited a bit more but I think this one suits them just fine.

For Orlando, it's just another piece to the puzzle. Anyone who watched them in the Finals could see that they are in need of a star shooting guard who can carry the load on the perimeter (and slashing) and give Dwight some help from time to time. Carter to the Magic automatically make them one of the select few favorites to win the title next year, though losing Turkoglu does hurt, considering his versatility allowed them to run a big lineup with him as point guard.

Also in the news are the San Antonio Spurs - the model of an elite professional sports organization. The Spurs traded defensive stopper Bruce Bowen and centers Kurt Thomas and Fabricio Oberto to the Milwaukee Bucks in exchange for star forward Richard Jefferson.

It's a good move for the Spurs, don't get me wrong. But I do have reservations about how San Antonio management perceives Jefferson's ability. In data-tracking throughout the years, he's never notched a very high on/off differential nor has he amassed a particularly high PER (Player Efficiency Rating). Statistics can be deceiving every now and then but I'm a bit skeptical about his production. He seems like one of those players who has a knack for filling up the box-score without having a distinctly positive impact for his team.

This could all change in San Antonio, though. The Spurs have an immense amount of talent, a dominant low-post scorer, slashing threats and outside threats. By all means, the court will have opened up a substantial amount when Jefferson comes to town. He'll most likely be able to put up the numbers AND have a solid impact thanks, in large part, to his All-Star teammates. Understanding that the Spurs basically got him for nothing, it's hard to knock this trade for them. It's a nice move and classic Spurs.

For Milwaukee, this trade comes as no surprise. Their management has consistently been some of the worst in professional sports (notice the dichotomy here, heh). They handed a ridiculous contract to a one-dimensional, no-defense guard in Michael Redd and have failed to build a contending team in Wisconsin for as long as I can remember. Is it possible that Bucks' management is going to start all over and build from scratch (including selling low on Redd)? Possibly. If I were them, I'd consider that the only conceivable move, but knowing Milwaukee, they'll see another option.

Lastly, but certainly not least(ly?), we have the Wizards and Timberwolves who struck a deal just before the 2009 NBA Draft. Minnesota dealt third-year guard Randy Foye and sharp-shooter Mike Miller to the Washington Wizards for the Zards' 5th pick (which turned out to be Ricky Rubio), centers Etan Thomas and Oleksiy Pecherov and veteran forward Darius Songaila.

As a die-hard Wizards fan, this move is not earth-shattering but solid enough to make us easily the 4th-best team in the East (possibly better, but not likely). It will, health permitting, yield 50 wins and a 2nd-round playoff birth. But it fails to address one pressing need - defense. Neither Foye nor Miller are noted defenders and both will be major parts of our rotation. Unless this deal is proceeded by another move that could net us a more defensive-oriented roster, I can't say I'm all that impressed. Arenas/Miller/Butler/Jamison/Haywood is one of the worst defensive lineups in the NBA (save for Haywood) and unless Flip Saunders and company is a miracle-worker on the defensive end of the floor, this team will score 105pts and give up nearly the same amount. Then there's the salary issue. We acquired two players who will need to be re-upped next season. Will we have the money to do so? Will Honest Abe Pollin be willing to shell out luxury tax dollars to keep a 50-win team intact? Will keeping them cost us a much more valuable player like Brendan Haywood who is ready for a new contract at the same time? Only time will tell but there had better be a fool-proof plan in place or else this will come back to bite us in the butt.

Switching gears, Minnesota made a pretty good trade. With the 5th pick, they selected the Spanish sensation Ricky Rubio (a player with top-2 talent). Rubio will not be able to play for one, maybe two years but Minnesota is in a very rare position - one where they can afford to wait for the kid to come over. Most teams are busy building for a playoff run or trying to contend that they simply do not have the option of waiting for a top-5 pick to fall into their laps. Also in this trade, the T-Wolves acquired Etan Thomas (expiring contract) Oleksiy Pecherov (expiring contract) and Darius Songaila (savvy veteran who will be a valuable addition to a team full of young, inexperienced players).

Up to this point, this NBA off-season has been one of the more memorable and thrilling ones to date. Big-name players didn't just get rumored to leave town, they actually packed their bags and hopped on the plane! Will the Cavs get that final push to the title and keep their super-star, LeBron James? Can the Magic establish themselves as more than a one-hit-wonder? Are the Wizards going to be the surprise team of the season and take their place among the East's elite? These, and many more questions, will be answered in the year to come. But hey - the off-season isn't over yet....

Congrats, Los Angeles!

Congratulations to the Los Angeles Lakers, your 2008-2009 NBA Champions. It's no secret I had my doubts as to the mental toughness and group cohesion of the Lakers. Following a match-up against the Houston Rockets that unexpectedly went a thrilling seven games. Houston was, at the time, missing Tracy McGrady due to injury and lost their superstar center Yao Ming just games into the series, but, in true underdog fashion, pushed the West's #1 seed to the max. Kobe Bryant was held to pedestrian numbers (by his standards) and Pau Gasol had moments of embarrassment when defending opposing big, Luis Scola.

They did manage to win game-7 rather convincingly at home behind a ruckus Staples Center Crowd.

This led to the Western Conference Finals where they met up with a familiar foe - Chauncey Billups of the Denver Nuggets (formerly of the Detroit Pistons, the team he spearheaded when, in 2003-2004, the Pistons upset the Lakers to win the NBA championship). Denver would get strong performances from both Billups and Anthony and managed to make the series more than interesting through the first few games, tying the series at 1-1 and stealing a game in Los Angeles. But the Lakers proved why they were the best in the West as they were too much for a Nuggets team that was simply over-matched. The defining moment, perhaps, was Kobe Bryant's game-3 heroics in which he nailed a critical crunch-time 3 that practically won the game for L.A. They wrapped up the series in six games and were Western Conference Champs yet again.

All of that led us to the 2009 NBA Finals that pitted Kobe and company against the under-dog Orlando Magic who just came off an impressive series win against LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers. Much like the Denver match-up, Los Angeles was pushed to the limits early on. They won game-one easily but when game-two came around, Orlando made it clear that they weren't going to back down. But despite their greatest efforts, including 34 points from Rashard Lewis, Kobe Bryant had the last laugh and closed the game as he does so often. As the series shifted to Orlando, so too did the momentum. Suddenly, the Magic were the ones looking to make some noise and quickly took the first game at their house. As game-four rolled around, Orlando was looking to tie the series and looked as if they were about to do so. They captured a comfortable 3-point lead with just seconds remaining and had the ball. Dwight Howard was promptly fouled and sent to the line. A poor free throw shooter throughout his entire career, Howard clanked both and Los Angeles quickly called timeout. At this point, all the Magic had to do was not give up a 3-pointer and they'd surely win. But with time ticking down and Derek Fisher dribbling up the court, the unthinkable happened - Jameer Nelson gave Fish just enough room to get off a clear look and to the dismay of 20,000+ at Amway Arena, the shot was money.

The Lakers captured a 3-1 lead and never looked back. The title-clinching win came in game-5 and despite Dwight Howard's pre-game promise of a win (a "guaransheed" of sorts), Kobe Bryant turned out a simply phenomenal performance as the win was at no point in doubt.

They did what I thought they couldn't do - beat their opponents not just physically but mentally. The Lakers proved that they could get a lead in a series and not feel like it was in the bag, but keep on pushing. This was no more evident than on the face of their team, Kobe Bryant, who in numerous post-game press conferences had a one-track mind and singular focus - winning at all costs. That's what it takes to be a champion.

Of course it would be wrong to go through an entire blog post and not congratulate the other members of the Lakers, not just Kobe Bryant. Namely, Pau Gasol who was Pippen-esque in his excellence as a 2nd-option. His numbers were on par with most teams' first-options. Also of note, Trevor Ariza who was the stabling force for Los Angeles. Timely steals, big defensive plays, clutch 3's - you need it, Ariza delivered. And lastly, Derek Fisher who had the defining moment of the NBA Finals - his shot that sent game-4 into overtime, where Los Angeles took a commanding lead in the series.

So many times, we get too caught up in the star power of a particular team or series and put everyone else to the side. While Kobe Bryant was fantastic throughout, he'll be the first to admit that he never could have gotten to that point without the help of his supporting cast.

Once again, congratulations to the Lakers and their fans - a well-deserved championship.

Orlando Trying To Overcome The Odds

After months of preliminary rounds, the NBA Finals are upon us as the Lakers have taken an early 2-0 lead in their series against the Orlando Magic. In the first two games, Kobe Bryant has been sensational and Pau Gasol has been the ideal second option. Meanwhile for the Magic, Dwight Howard has underperformed and their role players, specifically perimeter shooters, have failed to connect as they did in subsequent rounds. Rashard Lewis has been their only player that's stepped his respective game up but it hasn't been enough to steal a game in La-La Land.

Statistically, when the home team wins the first two games of a best-of-seven series, a stunning 94.2% go on to win the series. This bodes well for the Lakers but is it possible that the Magic could be one of the 5.8% that beat those tremendous odds? Well, it's happened three times before and one time very recently. In 2006, the eventual champion Miami Heat dropped the first two games of their NBA Finals series against the power-house Dallas Mavericks. But as we well know, Dwyane Wade turned in a magnificent performance and the Heat went on to capture their first title as an NBA franchise.

Orlando is looking to repeat history. With a stellar 32-9 record playing at home, the Magic are hoping for a bounce-back effort from Dwight Howard and the perimeter role players. For a team that takes on adversity like it's nobody's business, they are poised for an upset. Each round of the playoffs has presented a unique set of challenges and obstacles for the Magic. In round-one, the Philadelphia 76'ers had an unexpected 2-1 lead in the series, heading into game-four at their house. But Orlando re-grouped and won game-four, then going on to win the next two, ending the series in six games.

In round-two, they took on the Boston Celtics. After five games, the Celtics took a commanding 3-2 lead. The Magic could have quit then and there but overcame the odds and won the next two games including a rout of Boston in game-seven.

As round-three emerged, so to did the NBA's best regular season team, the Cleveland Cavaliers and their MVP, LeBron James. But Cleveland's #1 ranking didn't phase Orlando as they controlled the series from the get-go, despite some questionable officiating.

So here we have it, the NBA Finals. And here Orlando is, down two games to zip. I'm not saying the Lakers are going to lose this series but it's hard to count the scrappy Magic out of it, despite what the historical numbers dictate. However, Orlando cannot count on home-cooking to get themselves back into this series - a mistake the Nuggets made against this very same Lakers team in the Conference Finals. Adjustments must be made. First and foremost, pick up the tempo. With the long-range gunners and athletes the Magic have, putting up an average of 85.5 points won't cut it. Get the offense going, create fast-break opportunities and run the floor. The Magic also must cut down on their turnovers, especially their big-man Dwight Howard. Once the pressure comes (and it inevitably will when the ball is fed to Superman down low), make a quick pass out to the open perimeter players. If and when that player receives the ball, don't be afraid to make the extra pass. One of the most underrated aspects of an offensive system is the pass that leads to a pass that leads to a made field goal.

The Magic are at a disadvantage, this much is certain. But that squad is no stranger to overcoming the odds and getting the most out of their players. With the proper adjustments, a change of venue and maybe a little more help from the zebras, we might be looking at a 2-2 series going into the crucial game-five.

A Brief Rant - ESPN Marketing

I'm not someone who complains often regarding how large corporations handle their business. Why? Because they are always going to do what's in their own best interests and, in general, they won't make bad financial decisions. They do their research, they put in the time and they deliver a strong product that has a very low chance of failure.

But here is one instance where I think ESPN, the self-proclaimed "World-wide leader in sports" is making a big mistake. No, I'm not talking about firing Screamin' Stephen A. Smith from their telecasts - what I am referencing is their generous daily serving of LeBron James and Kobe Bryant down the collective throats of the American public.

Listen, I'm not an idiot - I realize that the NBA is a star's league and that recognizable faces in this sport, more than others, sell tickets, merchandise and an overall solid product. It's because of this that I've lived with LeBron and Kobe leading off "SportsCenter" for the better part of the regular season and why I fully expected them to follow suit in the post-season. But to my surprise, they (ESPN) took their respective game up another notch - something I didn't think was humanly possible. From their website to their television programs to their magazine to their broadcasted games, we don't just get Kobe and/or LeBron as the lead-off story, we get Kobe and/or LeBron as the entire show. To put it into perspective, the Orlando Magic, just a few nights ago, won game-3 of their series to take a 2-1 lead. Yet, I'd say a good 4/5ths of SportsCenter's coverage of the game was focused on Cleveland and LeBron; "How can Cleveland come back?" "What did the Cavs do wrong?" "Can LeBron save them from this deficit?" Nothing about how well the Magic played; nothing about a great team effort.

Ever heard of the expression "Everything in moderation"? Yeah, ESPN hasn't. With their constant, incessant, seemingly endless barrage of all things Kobe/LeBron, the informed NBA fan has been overloaded to the point where they feel the need to write to ESPN, speak out against what they're doing and, yes, even blog about it (*looks at self in mirror*). To say that ESPN, the NBA and all other media forms want a Lakers/Cavaliers NBA Finals is to say that the sky is blue and that the pope is Catholic.

But is this over-indulgence, this excessive marketing campaign really in the best interest of the league and of the media outlets hyping it to no end? This blogger says a resounding "NO!". What it does is pander to the lowest-common-denominator in terms of NBA fans - the casual fans who know of teams but don't follow; who know only of the cream-of-the-crop-type-players and couldn't differentiate a Rashard Lewis from a Michael Ruffin. This is ESPN's target audience. So, instead of doing everything in their power to enlighten the casual fan as to who Dwight Howard is, who Carmelo Anthony is, and more importantly who the Magic and Nuggets are as teams and not individuals, what ESPN does is force-feed two of the most recognizable players in American sports (Kobe/LeBron) down our throats, planning on a Lakers/Cavaliers NBA Finals.

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Uh-oh, look what's coming to bite ESPN (et al) in their collective butts - a potential Magic/Nuggets Finals. How's that for irony?

Instead of branding the NBA as a team-sport, or at the very least, introducing the casual fan to more than two players and two teams, there may be a storm a'brewing. With the Nuggets playing arguably the best basketball in franchise history, tying the series at two games a-piece, and the Magic looking for a 3-1 lead tonight (Tuesday, May 26th), the NBA's worst nightmare may very well come to fruition. And if it does, get ready for a massive clean-up attempt by the media outlets (ESPN specifically) the likes of which you've never seen. Get ready for one of the, if not the least-watched NBA Finals of all-time. But most importantly, get ready to watch me play the world's smallest violin outside ESPN headquarters in Bristol, CT, because they earned every sweet note.

Predictions: NBA Conference Finals

(1) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (3) Orlando Magic

A Cavs/Celtics match-up might have garner higher ratings but I guarantee (check it...guaransheed) that the Magic will give the NBA's best team their biggest challenge. In the regular season, Orlando won the series 2-1, including a decisive routing on April 3rd (116-87). From a distance, it would appear that Dwight Howard gives Cleveland more trouble than most and that the Magic defense (which ranked #1 in the NBA this season - something ESPN won't tell you) has formed an effective strategy on keeping LeBron somewhat in check.

But you can already hear Cleveland's rebuttal, and it's hard to argue against them - the playoffs are a different beast. Throw regular season success out of the window because when the Eastern Conference Finals begin on May 20th, you can bet the Cavs' collective memory will have done the same.

Cleveland has something no other team has - a player who can do whatever he wants whenever he wants however he wants. Players like Dwight Howard, Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade and Chris Paul are all tremendous players and superstars in their own right but they are a clear step behind James who makes pure dominance look almost effortless. With him on your side, you will be in every ball-game.

What will, ultimately prove to be key in this series is home-court advantage. Cleveland, since they are the one-seed, will have it. That means that the Cavs, who nearly broke an NBA-record for regular-season home win percentage, don't necessarily need to win any road games if they can protect their house.

I see this series going at the very least six games. Those picking the Magic in seven are foolish, in my opinion. If Orlando is winning this series, it will be in six games because LeBron James is not losing game-seven at "The Q" no matter who the competition is.

Prediction: The Cleveland Cavaliers in 7
Bolder Prediction: Neither team loses at home





(1) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (2) Denver Nuggets

There are a few things I know about this series. The first is that, if the most talented team won, it would clearly be Los Angeles. The second is that talent isn't everything. What I saw from the Lakers in their previous round against the Houston Rockets is that they are not a mentally tough team. Once Yao Ming went down from injury, the Lakers should have gotten more hungry, not less. They should have licked their chops to demoralize a depleted Rockets squad. But they didn't. What really happened was that they lost all energy and focus. They got complacent. They got cocky. They thought they could turn "it" on whenever they wanted and, to their surprise, they ran into a team that played with heart and pride. The series went seven games and proved to the league that the Western Conference powerhouse was indeed vulnerable.

So here we have a new challenger for Los Angeles - the Denver Nuggets. Denver has been a playoff team for a while now but have always lacked the mental focus and leadership to guide them to a deep run. Enter: Chauncey Billups - the floor general, Mr. Big Shot and the key to Denver possibly surprising the Lake-show. With Carmelo Anthony playing, arguably, the best ball of his career, the Nuggets are poised to make some noise.

Offense? Check.
Defense? Surprisingly, check.
Deep bench? Check (boasting J.R Swish and the Birdman, Chris Anderson)
Coaching? Check.

It would see that all the pieces are in place. All that's left is proving the doubters wrong. Keep in mind that it's no coincidence that this Nuggets team was able to capture the 2nd seed in a tough Western Conference. They really are a well-built team who will not back down to anyone.

Now, I'm not saying that the Lakers aren't going to win this series, despite the somewhat critical tone I've taken towards them in this post. It very well may be that the LAL/HOU series is just what they needed - a wake-up call and reminder that without focus, talent might not get you where you want to be. That's certainly the position Southern California is collectively taking right now. But I have my doubts. Between the Lakers' questionable desire and the Nuggets' recent surge, this should be a tightly contested series.

Prediction: The Los Angeles Lakers in 6

2009 NBA Playoff Predictions - Round 1 Edition

My friends, it's that time again. The NBA Playoffs - where champions are made and pretenders are sent home. It's a time to celebrate all that's right with the league - the passion, the excitement, the rivalries, the trash talking. No teams battling for the worst record in hopes of that #1 pick here. Just one vision; one goal - an NBA Championship.

This year's version of the NBA Playoffs provides plenty of intriguing story-lines and match-ups and I will be giving my own predictions for each of the 1st-round contests. Let's start out with the Eastern Conference.


(1) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (8) Detroit Pistons

I'm not sure whether it's my inherent dislike for all things Cleveland or not, but I feel like the Pistons have a shot at giving the Cavaliers a run for their money. This has been one of the NBA's better rivalries over the past few years so if you think Detroit is going into this series ready to wave the white flag, I think you have another thing coming. Their core of players, minus Billups, are still there and their title experience cannot be overlooked. For the Cavs, they are the unquestioned favorites and have earned the right to be seen as such. With an NBA-best record of 66-16 and a home record of 39-2, it's their series to lose. What I'll be looking for is the following - Will Tayshaun Prince have any effectiveness guarding and slowing down LeBron James? How will Mo Williams play in his first post-season series with the Cavaliers? Can anyone other than Hamilton, Prince and Wallace take their respective game to another level?

What's funny about this series is that the injured Allen Iverson (who is out) had the most success with the Pistons when playing against the Cavaliers. How's that for irony?

Prediction - Cleveland wins the series, 4-2.



(2) Boston Celtics vs. (7) Chicago Bulls

A thoroughly uninteresting series just days ago has now turned into a match-up that begs the question - Can Boston get by the 1st round without their superstar, Kevin Garnett? I must admit, it's a question I ask as well. It's not easy to take an offensive/defense/vocal force, put him on the bench and have your team be expected to win on the toughest stage. The Celtics are going to have to have a few things happen to win. Firstly, they need Pierce and Allen to take on more of the scoring load. We all know that the Big Three have sacrificed their respective games in the best interest of the team, but that gets thrown out of the window, here. They need to be much more offensively aggressive. Secondly, role players must change their roles. Glen Davis and Leon Powe can no longer be solid reserves. They must be starting-caliber players who can consistently contribute with interior scoring and defense.

For the Bulls to win this series, they're going to need a non-Rookie showing from Derrick Rose, Tyrus Thomas to show consistency and aggressiveness and lastly, a young team transforming from a bunch of talented individuals to a true, cohesive team.

Prediction - Boston wins the series, 4-3.



(3) Orlando Magic vs. (6) Philadelphia 76'ers

You have to respect the 76'ers. They signed Elton Brand to a massive, long-term contract last off-season and expected him to be a huge factor throughout the entirety of this season. Unfortunately, he was only able to suit up for 29 games and will be out for the playoffs, including Philadelphia's 1st-round match-up against the deadly Orlando Magic. But they took the loss in stride and have made the most out of a key injury, finishing 6th in the East. The two "Andre"s (Miller and Iguodala) will need to have career performances and 2nd-year player Thaddeus Young will need continue his stellar play for the 6'ers to have a shot at upsetting.

But I just don't see it happening. Orlando is tried and tested. They are an elite squad on both ends of the floor and have one of the league's true superstars in center Dwight Howard. I don't see Philadelphia being able to handle Superman down low, though Sam Dalembert may play him better than most. And Philadelphia will find it difficult to score on the Magic's number-one-ranked defense.

Prediction - Orlando wins the series, 4-1.



(4) Atlanta Hawks vs. (5) Miami Heat

This should prove to be the most entertaining series of the 1st round, as most 4/5 match-ups are. We have the better team (Atlanta) sans superstar-caliber player, against the worse team (Miami) with Dwyane Wade. The question is - what wins out? Team talent or individual talent? I'm of the thinking that in the playoffs, when two teams are as close as these two are (one being a 4-seed, the other a 5-seed), the outcome of the series is dependent on the superstar(s). Dwyane Wade has been there and done that. He's won a championship and knows what it takes to beat the odds. His play this season has been nothing short of remarkable and though I'd still cast my vote for LeBron James, my 2nd place vote would go to the Miami Heat star. If Wade raises his game to the level I expect and the Heat get average contributions from their other go-to players such as Jermaine O'Neal and Udonis Haslem, they will be tough to beat.

For the Hawks, home-court is big. They were 31-10 this season at the friendly confines of Phillips Arena. They will need a total team effort to fend off the Heat. Joe Johnson has had a solid season but a continuation of his regular-season performance will not suffice. Ditto to Josh Smith. The X-factor for Atlanta will be Mike Bibby. Can he stick the open jumpshots that Johnson and Smith will give him?

Prediction - Miami wins the series, 4-3.

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My Eastern Conference 2nd-round bracket looks as follows...

(1) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (5) Miami Heat
(2) Boston Celtics vs. (3) Orlando Magic

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Now let's move to the wild, wild Western Conference.



(1) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (8) Utah Jazz

There is no such thing as an easy series in the West. Every team that makes the playoffs has some sort of shot at winning their series. The Jazz are finally getting healthy (Boozer is back) and yes, they still have Deron Williams. If the Jazz, a team who, coming into this season was seen as a title contender, can get their groove back, this might be a very interesting series and a potential monumental upset. The Lakers are getting healthy as well. Just recently, center Andrew Bynum has made his return and is contributing off the bat. For a team that came within games of a championship last season without Bynum, you have to feel that a rather serious edge goes to Los Angeles in this case.

Prediction - Los Angeles wins, 4-2.



(2) Denver Nuggets vs. (7) New Orleans Hornets

Now this is a series I have my eye on. Normally, 2/7 match-ups aren't of the most interest or drama, but the Hornets are a team that has been ravaged by injuries all season long, and still managed to compete night in and night out. Chris Paul is a game-changer and can win a series all by his lonesome in my not-so-expert opinion. David West is playing good basketball as well, and if they can get Tyson Chandler back in game shape (he made his return on April 16th), they will be a force to be reckoned with.

The Nuggets, on the other hand, have been living the good life, this year. After trading guard Allen Iverson for a true point guard and leader in Chauncey Billups, they have experienced great success to the tune of 54 wins. They are not just a high-scoring group anymore - they are also the 8th-best defensive team in the league, allowing just 106.8pts per 100 possessions.

Prediction - New Orleans wins series, 4-2.



(3) San Antonio Spurs vs. (6) Dallas Mavericks

You have to feel for San Antonio. Gregg Popovich has done everything in his power to give his triumvirate of stars as much rest as possible, including holding them out of certain regular season games. But due to increasing age and more miles than a 98 Honda Civic, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili might be the fall of the Spurs this post-season. Ginobili is out for the playoffs and Duncan is not 100% or anywhere close to it. For the Spurs to win this series, Duncan is going to need to, somehow, forget that he's 32 and Tony Parker is going to need to carry the team from the point guard position. Every one of their role players must need to do their job to perfection and a 3rd scorer must be established (I'm looking at you, Michael Finley).

For the Mavericks, I believe that, even without the home-court advantage, they have the edge in this series. Their play as of late has been much better than their 50-32 record would indicate. If I had to place a number on it, I'd say they're playing like a 60-win team right now, and will be hard to stop. Kidd has found his niche, Nowitzki is playing like the superstar he is and Josh Howard is back and healthy. It also helps that they have the probable 6th-Man-Of-The-Year in Jason (JET) Terry.

Prediction - Dallas wins the series, 4-2.



(4) Portland Trail Blazers vs. (5) Houston Rockets

Yet another ultra-interesting series out West. You have to feel good about Portland this season. After such a tumultuous stretch of years highlighted by player-arrests, suspensions, drug-charges, fighting and more, they finally have a team to be proud of. A team that you don't just root for because of geographical location but because they're a bunch of good, fun-loving people. The Blazers are making their first playoff appearance since 2003 and also have a healthy Greg Oden who's effectiveness cannot be overlooked. They have the most effective and efficient offense in the league, which is what makes this match-up so fun - the Rockets possess one of the NBA's elite defenses.

Houston is the classic example of a team turning lemons into lemonade. Down goes Tracy McGrady and up goes the Rocket-record. Their team cohesion is sky-high and they will not be an easy out, despite being the lower seed. When you have a player like Yao Ming on your team, you have a shot. What I question about the Rockets is point guard play. Is Aaron Brooks enough to hold down the fort?

Prediction - Portland wins the series, 4-3.


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My Western Conference 2nd-round bracket looks as follows...

(1) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (4) Portland Trail Blazers
(6) Dallas Mavericks vs. (7) New Orleans Hornets

Flip Saunders To Our Nation's Capital

It was announced today that the Washington Wizards and coach Flip Saunders have verbally agreed to a four-year contract that will be worth a reported 18-million dollars - a high price but a highly sought-after, respected and successful coach.

But is Saunders the right coach for this team? I'm torn on that particular question. Flip is clearly an above-average coach. He is renown for his masterful offensive schemes, strategies and principles. He has a personality that will not conflict with the team's stars - Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison. He has a history of winning at a respectable clip and he has experience which cannot be overlooked considering he's taking over a veteran-laden ball-club.

However, one of the things Saunders is not renown for is his defensive strategies which have been characterized as gimmicky and gambling. These defenses, many of which are zone, will gamble for steals and play quasi-dangerously - something that might work with ball-hawks like Arenas and Butler. I question whether this will help the Wizards come playoff time, when the opposing team has 4-7 attempts at successfully game-planning against them.

Saunders, for as good a career winning percentage as he is credited with, has always had a problem winning the more important, crucial games. When coach of the Minnesota Timberwolves, they made it out of the first round just once. He then headed to Detroit, fresh off an NBA Championship, and couldn't get past the Eastern Conference Finals (though credit must be given just getting to that point).

From everything that I just typed, Flip seems awfully reminiscent of the Wizards' last full-time coach - Eddie Jordan. True, he (Saunders) is a better version but their styles, their strategies, their strengths, their weaknesses - it's all so similar. As you may or may not remember, Jordan was known for implementing the Wizards with one of the most successful offenses in the league. He also had excellent rapport with his players - players who defend their former coach to this day. Unfortunately for Coach Eddie, he had one glaring problem. He was defensively challenged. His brilliant strategy to "Protect the Paint" did nothing but have Wizards players frantically scrambling out to 3pt shooters in a desperate, unsuccessful attempt to stick a hand in their face. It was literally like watching chickens with their heads cut off (excuse the graphic analogy). The Wizards, under Eddie Jordan, were one of the worst teams in NBA history at defending the 3pt line and hold NBA records for most threes given up in a season.

The choice of Flip Saunders is a safe, unspectacular selection. He will likely lead the Wizards to a 45-50-win record and a potential 2nd-round playoff birth. He won't cause any problems and will be regarded as a brilliant move by Washington GM Ernie Grunfeld. Will the Wizards get exponentially better under the command of Coach Flip? Probably not, but they will get better and that's what most fans are looking for. Personally? I would have liked to seen Grunfeld go after a coach that offers what the Wizards and any team with aspirations of hanging a championship banner need - defense. Tom Thibodeau was a guy I had my eye on as potential coach. He didn't have the experience and we don't know much about him but what we do know is that he is a defensive guru/mastermind. For a team as defensively challenged as the Wizards, he would have been my choice.

The Race To 8th

We're about one month away from the ultimate test of basketball fortitude - the NBA Playoffs. And though there are quite a few teams who have their Playoff ticket stamped, we also have those battling it out for the coveted final spot. In the East, Milwaukee is currently sitting at 8th, followed by five teams - all of which are two and a half games back or less. This blog post will be covering my predictions on who will get that final spot in the Eastern Conference and who, as EJ, Kenny and Charles would say, will be "goin' fishin'".

I will not cover the Western Conference because, in my professional opinion (cue laugh-track), the eight spots have all been determined with just the order left to question. Phoenix is the 9th seed and will not catch up as they have dug themselves a 4-game hole - one a tad too deep to get out of.

Let's get started....

Cleveland, Boston, Orlando, Atlanta and Miami are virtual locks. Detroit will most likely get in (if they can conveniently keep Iverson 'injured' just a few more weeks) as they are starting to hit their stride. The 76'ers are 33-31 and winners of their last three games. I have them in as well.

Then we move to the Milwaukee Bucks. It's hard to see them holding on to the 8th seed. They're gritty and determined, to be sure, but talent certainly helps and it's something that they simply do not have at the moment. Two of their three-best players, Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut, are both out for the season. In the hunt are the Chicago Bulls (30-37), New York Knicks (28-38), Charlotte Bobcats (29-38), New Jersey Nets (28-38) and Indiana Pacers (28-40).

The Indiana Pacers have a shot, despite public perception. They lack a legitimate 2nd-option scorer but are neither atrociously bad on defense (19th) or offense (19th). 11 of their final 14 games are at home where they are an impressive 19-12. I expect them to win about 8 of their final 14 games and finish with a record of 36-46. This may be enough to just squeeze into the playoffs.

The New York Knicks aren't quite as fortunate. They are one game ahead of the Pacers and just 1.5 games behind the Bucks for 8th, but play half of their remaining 16 games at home and half on the road. However, their competition is tough to say the least, including three match-ups with the Magic, along with games against Western Conference powerhouses such as the Hornets, Jazz and Nuggets. They are slightly above-average on offense (13th) but pretty bad on defense (23th). I predict about 7 more wins out of the Knicks this year, putting them at 35-47, and securely out of playoff contention.

The New Jersey Nets are in the midst of a three-game losing streak and are one of the rare teams who possess the same record on the road as at home (both 14-19). Looking at the rest of their schedule, the Nets play some of the league's elite teams. They will face the Cavaliers twice, the Lakers, the Magic and the Nuggets to name a few. Considering their recent woes, I see a 5-11 record which would get them to a 33-49 and out of the playoff race.

The Charlotte Bobcats are the 10th seed in the East. But don't let their sub-par record fool you. Ever since the mid-season deal that sent Jason Richardson to the Suns for forward Boris Diaw, they have played above .500 basketball. The 'Cats are an impressive 7-3 in their last 10 games. However, with just 15 games remaining in their unexpectedly non-sucky season, 9 of them are on the road. But on the bright side, the competition in these final 15 games is not what you'd call daunting with just two games being against the top-4 seeds in both conferences (one against the Lakers, the other against Boston). I'm actually calling an 8-7 finish to Charlotte's season, which would leave them with a 37-45 record, and ahead of my 36-46 record prediction for Indiana.

Lastly, we have the Chicago Bulls. They are 9th in the East and tied with Milwaukee for 8th. With the devastating injuries to the Bucks' stars, it is most likely Chicago's playoff spot to lose. They have 15 games remaining and 11 of which are at home, where they possess a 20-11 record. Better yet for Bulls fans, their remaining games are A) against fairly weak competition and B) against the teams they are battling with for that 8th seed. I expect a 9-6 finish, at worst, for Chicago which would leave them with a final record of 39-43.

My Eastern Conference Final Standings....

1. Cleveland Cavaliers
2. Orlando Magic (upset city, baby)
3. Boston Celtics
4. Atlanta Hawks
5. Miami Heat
6. Detroit Pistons
7. Philadelphia 76'ers
8. Chicago Bulls
--------------------------------
9. Charlotte Bobcats
10. Indiana Pacers
11. New York Knicks
12. Milwaukee Bucks
13. New Jersey Nets
14. Toronto Raptors
15. Washington Wizards (sigh...)

Mid-Season Free Agent Acquisition Grades

Drew Gooden (Spurs)

Grade: B+

Reasoning: Consistent as they come, the Spurs are 2nd in a tough Western Conference and are predictably rock-solid on defense. They rank 5th in defensive efficiency, allowing just 104.3pts per 100 possessions. But there is a problem in San Antonio - they do not have a championship-caliber offense. Yes, they have Duncan, Parker and a hobbled Manu Ginobili but lack the depth and overall talent of previous title seasons. They sit at a very pedestrian 14th in the league in offensive efficiency and, with the exception of Duncan, have no legitimate post options. In fact, other than Tim, they don't really have any legitimate big men, unless you count what's left of Kurt Thomas. Enter: Drew Gooden. Aside from the hideous beard, Gooden is just what the doctor ordered for the Spurs. He can shoot the mid-range jumper, he can play in the low-post and he can rebound. He'll take pressure off of the Big-3 with consistent play. Why not an "A" grade? The man is defensively deficient, though with "The Big Fundamental" on the floor, Gooden's tail should be covered.



Joe Smith (Cavaliers)

Grade: A

Reasoning: The Cavaliers have gone from tier to tier each season in the LeBron James era. At first, they were border-line playoff-caliber, then a playoff team who found an easy path to the Finals but came up short, and have now entered "elite" status. They are leading the Eastern Conference and are 2nd only to the Lakers for best record in the NBA. I liken the Joe Smith acquisition to the old phrase "The rich get richer". Smith is the ideal role player. He sticks the open jumper. He is a good post defender and help defender. He can work from the post, he's a wise veteran and he's good for team chemistry. What Smith provides, most of all, is consistent offense off of the bench. Before the signing, Cleveland brought (and will continue to bring) Anderson Varejao off the pine, but for as good as AV is, he isn't a scorer, much less a consistent one. They also turned to rookie JJ Hickson from time to time. Excellent addition for the Cavs.



Luther Head (Heat)

Grade: D

Reasoning: I'm not sure how this helps the Heat or gives them any extra push. Head is an undersized shooting guard who is experiencing a terrible season. Last year, he was at least respectable from an offensive standpoint, posting a PER of 13.4 and shooting sky-high percentages. Last year's Luther Head could potentially help Miami by giving them another scorer. But they didn't acquire last year's Luther Head. They acquired the one who's PER is at a miserable 9.8, and who is shooting an eFG% of just 45.5%. And as has been mentioned, he's not a point guard (a position the Heat could actually use). He doesn't have great ball-handling skills and isn't a particularly good passer, averaging 3.9 assists per-36 minutes, to go along with nearly 2 turnovers. However, I don't think the Heat are going into this seeing him as a savior or a big-time role player, and it's not as if he's being paid max money. Still, a questionable choice of players.



Mikki Moore (Celtics)

Grade: B

Reasoning: He works hard. He is an efficient scorer and he won't get in the way of the Big-3. The Celtics are having another great year but with the loss of James Posey and P.J Brown are in need of bench support. Moore, in many aspects, provides this. Mikki, just a few seasons ago, led the NBA in fg% while with the New Jersey Nets. He knows the difference between a good shot and a bad shot, but equally as important, he knows his role. A solid, unspectacular signing.



Stephon Marbury (Celtics)

Grade: B+

Reasoning: I won't go into much detail as to my feelings on this signing, considering the previous blog post was all about it, but suffice to say, it's a good move. The Celtics need bench help if they want to make it two titles in a row. Marbury wants to go somewhere where he can build up his perceived character - match made in heaven. He was signed to the veteran's minimum so it's not as if he will be a thorn in their side if he regresses back to the Stephon Marbury of the Knicks. Boston will simply cut him and never look back. The only reason this acquisition isn't an "A" is because, like Gooden, Marbury has a problem playing defense and on a team that prides themselves on dominant defense, it might be hard for Steph to fit in quickly or at all.

Starbury Headed for Boston?

According to many Boston sources, Stephon Marbury will be a Celtic within the next few days. What does this mean for Boston? Can they really handle a player like Steph who, along with Knicks management, has been at the root of one of the longer-running soap operas in professional sports? To be as concise as possible, the short answer is "yes".

The Celtics are in an enviable position. They're one of the front-runners for the Larry O'Brien trophy, they're defending champions and everybody and their mother wants to play for them. Guys who are looking for a championship will sacrifice money, playing time and a big role just to play there. That's why Boston was able to sign veteran journeyman Mikki Moore and is in the process of acquiring former All-Star Stephon Marbury.

Let's be honest, Starbury's stock isn't exactly at its peak right now. He was disastrous in New York and doesn't have the best reputation when it comes to team chemistry. So why should we assume all will be well once he puts on that Boston-green? We should assume this because the man's ultimate goal, even more than winning a championship, is to change his image. Marbury needs to go from a me-first, team-second-type player to the person every team would welcome with open arms. That is the only situation where he can take on a large role - a role he's been accustomed to for the better part of his career. He'll go to Boston. He'll be a model citizen, and he'll help them in any way possible coming off of that bench, because Steph has his long-term interests in mind.

And it's not as if he won't be an important piece to the Celtics' puzzle. With point guard Rajon Rondo averaging 33 minutes and shooting guard Ray Allen logging 36 minutes, there will be about 20+ minutes nightly for Marbury to make a new name for himself.

Sticking to hypotheticals, let's say my bold prediction comes up short. What if he can't handle being a bench player with a limited role? What if he turns into "Me-bury" again and destroys team chemistry - That's the beauty of the situation from Boston's perspective. They're signing him for pennies on the dollar. They can afford to lose him without taking a financial hit because, with Marbury or without Marbury, they have a good shot at winning a title.

Whether Stephon Marbury will be an unequivocal success or an unmitigated disaster, one thing is certain - we're all going to be paying extra-close attention to the Celtics for the next few months, 'cause you never know what's going to happen when Starbury is in town.

Miami Heat - 6th Seed to Contender, Overnight?

The Miami Heat are currently sitting at 6th in the Eastern Conference with a record of 27-24 (0.529). If you've read this blog, you know that I think that Dwyane Wade is the second-most-valuable player in the NBA and is putting a fairly bad team on his back and carrying them to a respectable record. Their second-best player is Shawn Marion who, despite solid defense and rebounding, clearly doesn't fit in the half-court system coach Eric Spoelstra runs. And while Michael Beasley is an immense talent with a bright future in this league, he should not be a playoff team's third-best player which, on the Heat, he is. Meanwhile at center, they start Joel Anthony (usually followed by a "who?") for the sheer reason that he is tall and a decent defender. The makeup of their team is fairly poor.

But this could all change, soon.

As of today, February 12th, 2009, the Heat are major players in the NBA trade market. Potential moves that are in discussion are 1) a deal that would swap Shawn Marion for Jermaine O'Neal of the Toronto Raptors, and 2) a block-buster of epic proportions that would see disgruntled Suns' forward Amare Stoudemire call South-Beach his new home, with Michael Beasley and Udonis Haslem being shipped to Phoenix or potentially a third team. Without getting into how much I hate the idea of Phoenix trading Stoudemire (and I do H-A-T-E it), Miami is setting themselves up for success....big success.

For the purposes of this blog post, we're going to assume these two trades are agreed upon and that the Heat have a starting lineup that looks as follows...

pg: Mario Chalmers
sg: Dwyane Wade
sf: James Jones (or Daequan Cook)
pf: Amare Stoudemire
c : Jermaine O'Neal

Instantaneously, Miami is transformed from middle-of-the-pack Eastern Conference playoff team to NBA title contenders. That team contains every trait you would want out of an elite team with the exception of a deep and talented bench (which can be solved in one off-season). Amare Stoudemire provides a credible, efficient, effective and offensively dominant inside threat. His biggest fault is defense which, wouldn't ya' know it, is one of Jermaine O'Neal's strengths. Problem avoided. O'Neal also happens to be a perfect third-option scorer - something every contending team must have. Boston has Garnett/Pierce/Allen; San Antonio with Duncan/Parker/Ginobili; The Lakers feature Bryant/Gasol/Odom (and Bynum); Even Cleveland has James/Williams/Ilgauskas.

Miami's interior scoring, rebounding and defense are all strong. Then we move to the perimeter. We all know about Dwyane Wade and what he provides. Suffice to say, they're fine at shooting guard. Chalmers is a rookie and therefore prone to rookie mistakes from time to time, but overall, he's a respectable starting point guard. He makes smart decisions. He can hit the perimeter shot with consistency and most importantly, he defends. The weakest position of their starting-five is small forward where either James Jones or Daequan Cook will get the nod. While neither are starting-caliber players, that shouldn't matter on this Heat team since they have such prolific players from Wade to Stoudemire to O'Neal. What they need out of Jones/Cook is a specialty - something they do really, really well that can help the team. And guess what? Both Jones and Cook are 3pt-shooting specialists. Jones is a career 39.2% 3pt shooter. He's having a down year, hitting only 21.4% of his long-range bombs but this can be attributed to an injury that has caused him to miss all but 14 games this season, thus far. Cook, on the other hand, has been fairly healthy and is shooting a blazing 40.5% from downtown, good for 5th in 3pt percentage for players attempting 250 or more 3pt shots this season.

When I heard that the Heat were in serious contention for acquiring Amare Stoudemire, I immediately thought it was a match made in heaven. A few years back, Kevin Garnett was still with the Timberwolves and Allen Iverson was being shopped by the Philadelphia 76'ers. I felt it was a horrible decision by Kevin McHale not to go after the superstar 2-guard and try to pair him up with 'The Big Ticket' because they would have complimented each other so well. Garnett was unquestionably the better and more complete player but was (and is) instinctively unselfish. Iverson, on the other hand, was lousy on defense but a bona-fide 1st-option scorer. Wade and Amare, like my scenario of Garnett and Iverson, would go together like peanut butter and jelly. The multi-dimensional, versatile unselfish franchise player, and the ultra-explosive scorer who would never go a game without as many good looks as he wanted.

We could potentially see a big change in how the Heat's system is run. Right now, they play solid, if not unspectacular defense, giving up 106.1 points per 100 possessions (good for 10th in the league), but struggle mightily on offense, averaging a paltry 106.2 points per 100 possessions (7th-worst in the NBA). They will likely take a hit on defense. Jermaine O'Neal and Shawn Marion are comparable defenders (both above-average) but Udonis Haslem is a much better defender of power forwards than Amare Stoudemire, known as a very poor defender. Joel Anthony (who?) is a good defender but he is now moving to the bench where he will receive limited minutes. I can see the Heat going from 10th in the league on defense to about 13th. But their offense will be nearly unrecognizable. They would have three credible go-to players and surround them with shooters who are bound to be open more times than not. Expect to see the 7th-worst offense shoot to 7th-best (though not cumulatively - that would require inhuman scorers).

If you are a Miami Heat fan, your life could potentially take a dramatic swing in the upcoming weeks. "Elite" is a word thrown around more than it should be, around NBA blogs and message boards, but there's no other way to categorize what a Wade/Stoudemire/O'Neal combo could become. If you're a Wizards fan, a Magic fan, a Bobcats fan or a Hawks fan, your life just got a little tougher.....potentially.

Was Ray Allen the Right All-Star Replacement?

It was reported on February 3rd, 2009 that first-time All-Star and point guard for the Orlando Magic, Jameer Nelson, suffered a torn labrum and would be out indefinitely. This means three things - A) that the Orlando Magic are in serious trouble, B) that Jameer Nelson will not be able to take part in All-Star weekend activities and C) that a replacement would need to be chosen.

And a replacement was chosen - Ray "Jesus Shuttlesworth" Allen, star guard for the league-best Boston Celtics. Allen, who will join teammates Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce, is one of the league's most feared shooters and 2nd only to my All-Time favorite, Reggie Miller, in terms of career three pointers made. He should certainly have been in the running for this selection, but was it the right choice?

It all depends on how you look at the situation. If you've read my blog before, then you know that I don't subscribe to any particular method in terms of All-Star selection. Rather, I attempt to use parts of each theory. That means I will be looking at team performence, individual statistics (both base and in-depth) and, for this particular installment, team need. I will be looking at each of the other candidates and directly comparing them to Allen. Think of it as a round-by-round Boxing match. Can Sugar-Ray come out swinging or will another player take the crown.


Round 1: Ray Allen vs. David Lee (pf, New York Knicks)

David Lee has taken full advantage of Eddy Curry piling up DNPs like it's nobody's business. He is one of the leading candidates for the NBA's "Most Improved Player" Award and has proven himself to be much more than a good 6th man. Surprisingly, Lee and Allen stack up more evenly than Joe Sportsfan would think. Lee has a 0.3 advantage in PER (due to efficient scoring and outstanding rebounding). Ray, however, has the advantage in +/- by a large margin. Oddly enough, Lee has a net +/- of -4.5 while Ray Allen is currently at an impressive +15.4. Lee statistically out-produces his counterpart (meaning the player who he guards and vice versa) by just 0.3 points, whereas Allen's advantage is as 8.3. When looking at team standing, as expected, the Celtics are sitting pretty while the Knicks are 11th in the Eastern Conference. Neither guy plays at the one position the Eastern Conference actually needs (point guard), so I'll throw that out of the window.

Ray Allen gets the "Check" from me on this one.


Round 2: Ray Allen vs. Mo Williams (pg, Cleveland Cavaliers)

I was almost certain that Mo Williams was going to be chosen as the replacement. After all, it's arguable that Jameer Nelson was better than him, and Cleveland had (and still have) a better record than Orlando. So when I saw that Nelson was out, leaving the Eastern Conference without a backup to Devin Harris, I figured Mo Williams already had his ticket stamped for Arizona. Well, that's not how it turned out, but is it how it should have been? Williams posts a PER of 16.9, a full point below Allen's. His defense has been solid this year, much better than his Milwaukee days, but Allen has him covered in that department, since the Celtics are by far the NBA's best defensive squad while Boston is 3.4 points better defensively when Ray is on the floor (compared to Cleveland, just 0.2 points better defensively with Williams). Team standing is eliminated from the equation. Boston has a slight advantage but it is so minimal that no one should be choosing one player over the other because of it. What keeps Mo alive in this comparison is the fact that he plays 67% of his minutes at the point guard position, and Allen plays all of his minutes at either shooting guard or small forward. However, it is of my opinion that this is not enough to give Williams his first All-Star selection when taking all of the other evidence that points to the contrary into consideration.

Another "Check" for ShaRayRay.


Round 3: Ray Allen vs. Vince Carter (sg, New Jersey Nets)

Vince Carter is no stranger to All-Star Weekend. He's been selected 8 times in his NBA career. He truly is half-man half-amazing, but unfortunately for him, highlight-reel slams get no points in my book. A PER of 20.5, however, will. With many fans predicting the Nets to own one of the worst records in the league, they've done better than expected, though still sub-par. Carter as the advantage on offense. Despite sky-high shooting percentages for Allen (eFG% and TS%), he does little else to fill up the box-score. Vince, on the other hand, is quite adept at this aspect, averaging 5 rebounds and 4.7 assists per-36 minutes. I think it's also fair to say that if you switch Allen with Carter on the Celtics, Boston wouldn't lose much, if any ground. There's also a strong likelihood Vince would see higher efficiency. Where Ray Allen makes a case for himself in this comparison is in defense. When Carter wants to be, he can play solid defense, but rarely do I see him have the focus and determination on that side of the court. He plays for the 3rd-worst defensive team in the league while the Nets are a full 4 points worse defensively when he is on the floor. Meanwhile, Allen, playing for the league's best defensive squad, has no problems playing consistent and markedly above-average defense. Team standing must also enter the conversation. Yes, I'm well aware that there is an obvious talent discrepancy but credit must be given to Boston and Allen for being on track to surpass last season's win total.

In the closest round thus far, the "Check" goes to Allen.


Final Round: Ray Allen vs. Rajon Rondo (pg, Boston Celtics)

What? Rajon Rondo an All-Star? I must be smoking something good, right? Not necessarily. The 3rd-year point guard is having a career year. He's gone from being a liability on offense to a threat, ala Tony Parker of yesteryear. He does precisely what the Celtics need from their point guard - score efficiently, play defense and know your role. As has been mentioned, Ray Allen's shooting percentages are out of this world, but his PER is at 18 because he averages just 3.4 rebounds and 2.7 assists per-36 minutes. Rondo is the opposite. He struggles with mid-range shooting (though his interior scoring/finishing is fantastic) but averages, per-36 minutes, an impressive 9 assists and a staggering good 5.5 rebounds. When your point guard averages this many rebounds, the lives of teammates becomes that much easier. Fast-breaks can be started and finished faster than normal and efficiency sees an increase as well. Defensively, both players contribute to Boston's #1 defense in big ways. Statistically speaking, Allen has the advantage. He holds his counterpart to a lower PER and a lower average. However, this may be a case of statistics being a bit deceiving. Rondo is one of the better thieves in the league, averaging 2.3 steals per-36 minutes.

In terms of statistics (points, assists, rebounds), Rondo has the edge. If you look purely at scoring, Allen has the advantage. Defensively, I'll call it a wash. Team standing won't make an entrance in this comparison for apparent reasons. So what is the last criteria I could use to differentiate these two comparable Celtics? - team need. The Eastern Conference, whether fans want to believe so or not, needs a backup point guard, if for no other reason than balance. Yes, we can all point to the Jamaal Magloire selection of years' past and try to use it for every "team need" scenario, but that's a bad way of looking at it, in my opinion.

Rajon Rondo with the knockout punch on Sugar Ray.

I don't believe an egregious error was made, considering my vote was based on a tie-breaker, but if I was given the opportunity to select one player to replace the injured Jameer Nelson, Ray Allen would not be the guy.

MVP Rankings: Top-10

Let me preface by saying that if your favorite player is not ranked #1, it is not because I hate them. It is not because I hate their team. It is not because I hate you. These rankings are based on a variety of criteria including per-36-minute averages, PER, on/off data (both offensive and defensive), counterpart statistics, team standing, how much help said player has, etc. Now, without further ado, here are my top-10 MVP candidates half-way through the 2008-2009 NBA Season....


#10: Chauncey Billups (pg, Denver Nuggets)

Explanation: This is one of those cases where you look at A) "record before" and B) "record after". Chauncey is not the most talented player on his own team, but he's the motor that keeps the Denver Nuggets running. His statistics are very solid, as always, but nothing that would blow you away. You're not going to see 19pts, 7asts, 3rebs and say "MVP Candidate" but the man knows how to run an offense. For as much as he handles the basketball, 2.3 turnovers per-36 minutes is just what you want from your point guard. He rebounds well for a point guard, meaning he can facilitate the fastbreak. His defense is consistently around the best in the league among guards, as well.


#9: Dirk Nowitzki (pf, Dallas Mavericks)

Explanation: Say what you want about Dirk Nowitzki being "soft" or whatever unsubstantiated claims you may have but the Diggler is still one of the NBA's best power forwards. Per-36 minutes, he is averaging nearly 25pts, 8rebs and 2.3asts with a PER of 23.6, down slightly from last season. If you're looking for the reason he isn't ranked higher than 9th, look no further than defense. The Mavericks give up 3.9 more points per-100 possessions while allowing their opponents to shoot an eFG% 4.9% higher when Nowitzki is on the court. He's not horrible on D, since counterpart data suggests that he holds opposing power forward to a PER of 13.8, though. I'll give him a pass on the less-than-inspiring rebounding numbers considering he's playing with one of the best rebounding guards in league history (Jason Kidd).


#8: Brandon Roy (sg, Portland Trailblazers)

Explanation: It's hard to believe this is just Brandon Roy's third season in this league. Half-way through the season, the Blazers guard is putting up 22pts, 5asts, 4.5rebs per-36 minutes with a PER of nearly 25. It also helps that he's a rock-solid defender and leading his team to a 29-17 record - far better than I expected them to do this season.


#7: Yao Ming (c, Houston Rockets)

Explanation: The Great Wall of China checks in at #7. The Rockets have not lived up to the hype this year, partly due to injuries and partly due to questionable chemistry, but Yao Ming has been doing everything in his power to keep the Rockets at a respectable record. T-Mac, no T-Mac, Artest, no Artest - it doesn't matter. Yao is still able to score both effectively and efficiently. But unquestionably the most underrated aspect of his game is his defense, both post and help. The Rockets, an already top-notch defensive squad, give up 5.9 less points per-100 possessions when he is on the floor while the eFG% of the opposing team decreases by a substantial 4%.


#6: Tim Duncan (pf/c, San Antonio Spurs)

Explanation: There have certainly been better statistical seasons for Spurs' big-man Tim Duncan in his illustrious career, but this one might be the most impressive. San Antonio has been one of the more injury-ravaged teams in the league. Through the first half of the season, Manu Ginobili has missed 12 games while Tony Parker found himself on the sidelines for 9 games, and worst of all, they coincided. So the Spurs featured a starting lineup with rookie point guard George Hill, free-agent guard Roger Mason, what's left of Michael Finley and, depending on the night, one of Kurt Thomas, Fabricio Oberto or Matt Bonner, along with Duncan. Yet, they were able to overcome the adversity with 'Timmay' leading the pack. To go along with his always-stellar defense, Duncan is averaging 20.9pts, 10.6rebs, 3.8asts and nearly 2 blocks per-36 minutes while maintaining a PER of 25. Simply incredible for a player many thought was in the decline just a few seasons ago.


#5: Dwight Howard (c, Orlando Magic)

Explanation: He is the NBA's leading rebounder and shot-blocker, an improved man defender and posting a PER of 25.8 for the 36-10 Orlando Magic, one of the league's biggest surprises. I actually feel dirty putting Dwight at #5 instead of the top-3, but there are simply too many elite-level players this year and I believe Howard to have the most flaws in his game, albeit few. I would like to see a bit more versatility on the offensive end of the floor, in addition to a higher ft% and more consistent offensive outings.


#4: Chris Paul (pg, New Orleans Hornets)

Explanation: This was a tough choice to make because Paul and Howard are statistically very similar but CP3 is just a freak of nature. He breaks the rules of PER, which usually slights point guards. Chris Paul's PER is currently set at 30.3 while he throws out sick numbers each game for a Hornets team that's been hit with the injury bug this year. This is up nearly 3 from last season (27.82). Try to comprehend this - the Hornets rank 28th in pace, and yet, Chris Paul's per-36 numbers would lead you to believe they ran faster than the Phoenix Suns of 2004-2005. He's putting up 20.8pts and 5.2rebs (which, for a guard on a team as slow as New Orleans is just ridiculous) while leading the league in assists (10.9 per game, 10.4 per-36) and steals (2.8 / 2.7). And for as much as he controls the ball for the Hornets, the man averages just 3 turnovers per 36-minutes. He's a statistical phenomenon.


#3: Kobe Bryant (sg, Los Angeles Lakers)

Explanation: Kobe is having yet another MVP-caliber season. His team is easily the best in their conference and Kobe is easily the best player on his team. Looking at per-36 minute data, he has dropped off from last year (3 less points, 1 less rebound and a slightly lower assist average) but his PER has increased. The easiest explanation for this conundrum is a better team. Keep in mind that through the first half of last year, Bryant was without Pau Gasol (traded mid-season) and Andrew Bynum (injured for large portion). With a better team, his PER has ballooned. So why #3, right? Well, I'm of the opinion that if a player has great teammates who can really help carrying the load, that player's importance (see: value) becomes lower. It's not a slight towards Kobe more than it is a compliment to the Lakers.


#2: Dwyane Wade (sg, Miami Heat)

Explanation: Dwyane Wade at #2 is a great example of my personal theory to ranking MVP candidates. Are the Heat elite? Nope, but it's not D-Wade's fault. He's doing about as much as one player can possibly do (well, save for one other guy) to help his team. Comparatively speaking, Wade means more to the Miami Heat than Kobe Bryant does to the Los Angeles Lakers. Miami's second-best player is Shawn Marion who, despite strong defense and rebounding, is having the worst season of his professional career and an overall bad fit for the Heat. They don't have a starting-caliber center, and they are relying on rookie Mario Chalmers for full-time pg duties. Save for Wade, this team just isn't very good. And yet, they find themselves 5th in the East and about to take over 4th. They are able to do this because Wade is having an incredible season. Wade, the leagues top scorer, is averaging (per-36 minutes) 27pts, 6.7asts and 4.8rebs. His biggest improvement, however, is at the defensive end where he's gone from being a good help defender to a great help defender, and from an average man defender to an above-average man defender. Just to give everyone an idea of how important Wade is to the Heat, the league average for PER is set at 15.5. Other than Dwyane Wade, no other player on Miami's roster is at or above 16.


#1: LeBron James (sf, Cleveland Cavaliers)

Explanation: The way I just waxed poetic about Dwyane Wade, you'd think that he was the run-away winner of the MVP trophy, right? I mean, no one can possibly top all of that. Not possible. Oh wait, there's this kid who plays for the Cavs. Goes by the name James...LeBron James. He is easily the Most Valuable Player in the league right now, and this is coming from a Washington Wizards fan. James' per-36 numbers are on par with the all-time greats this season, as is his PER. At 31.6, LeBron's PER ranks 6th in NBA history behind just Wilt (2 appearances) and 'His Airness', Michael Jordan (3 appearances). But this isn't the old LeBron James who knew how to put up the numbers but was unspectacular on the other end of the floor. He has molded and shaped himself into an elite-level perimeter defender.

Scoring? Check.
Rebounding? Check.
Passing? Check.
Defense? Check.

So what's left? Team performance. And, yeah, the Cavaliers are tied for the league's 2nd-best record behind the Big 3 in Boston and tied with the star-laden Lakers squad, despite going without one of the top centers in the league, Big Z, and starter Delonte West for long stretches. Half-way through the 2008-2009 NBA Season, my pick for MVP is, without a doubt, LeBron James of the Cleveland Cavaliers.

All-Star Selection Process - What's Right and Wrong?

NBA All-Star Weekend is one of the more entertaining mid-season celebrations in professional sports. There is the Rookie-Sophomore game, various skills challenges, the battle for long-range accuracy in the 3-pt Shootout and the ultimate test of high-flying creativity better known as the Slam Dunk Contest presented by Sprite. But the pièce de résistance is unquestionably the NBA All-Star Game where the best of the best from each conference duke it out for bragging rights. But, are they really the best of the best? Who decides who is best? Are they qualified? These are some of the nagging questions of those opposed to the current selection process of the NBA All-Star Game.

Before I detail exactly what my stance is, let me briefly explain how things are currently done. The starters are chosen through a fan-vote on nba.com - two guards, two forwards and one center are voted in for each conference.

All-Star reserves are chosen by the coaches. Their criteria can range from 'most talented' to 'best statistics' to 'best record' and anywhere in between.

But is this how the process should be done? Well, I'm alright with some aspects while others do indeed bother me. What I do like is the fan vote, despite many NBA purists who feel the opposite. They want the All-Star Game to be about who deserves to be there - the 'best of the best', whatever that means. Me? I like the fan vote for the simple reason that, when you look at the essence of the NBA All-Star Game (and All-Star Weekend in general), it should be about the fans; It should be about pure entertainment and not to be taken all too seriously. If the fans want to see Allen Iverson start at point guard for the Eastern Conference despite The Answer having one of the worst seasons in his acclaimed career, then by all means, vote him in. This doesn't bother me like it does many others.

So that covers my opinion on the starters but what about the reserves? Well, this is where everything gets a bit foggy. It is, literally, impossible to make a majority happy with the reserve selections because there is no set criteria in which they are chosen. At least with the starters, we know why they are selected as they are - entertainment value. Aside from the few die-hard NBA fans who will closely look at each candidate statistically or look at how their ball-club is seeded, they will, instead, say the following "Man, his dunks are ridiculous" or "He has the most killer crossover" - and this is fine, in my honest opinion.

But the reserves? Not so simple - I know of a few coaches who subscribe to the theory that, if a player isn't leading his team to a .500 or above record, he does not earn the right to go to the All-Star Game. Is this legitimate? Well, it's circumstantial. Kevin Durant of the Okalahoma City Thunder is putting up a healthy 24.8pts, 6.7rebs and 2.7asts while maintaining a PER of nearly 20, an eFG% of 50.4 and a TS% of 57%. However, his Thunder are an unimpressive11-36. So should the blame for this record lie on the shoulders of Durant, or would it be a bit more wise to look at the players around him? I'll go with the latter. The 2nd-best player on Okalahoma City's roster is most likely Russell Westbrook (or Jeff Green depending on who you ask). Russell wouldn't even start on most teams in the association. Why punish Kevin Durant for an awful team? Isn't it bad enough that, despite his All-Star-caliber play, he has to watch his team falter on a nightly basis? It is to me. God knows how bad the Thunder would be without Durant.

Another theory I've heard being thrown around is that players who put up the best base-statistics should go, record be damned. This would certainly get Durant in the game, which I like, but unfortunately, it would also put a player like Caron Butler (SF, Washington Wizards) in the conversation. Listen, as a Wizards fan through and through, I'd love nothing more than to see some D.C representation in Phoenix, but I'm also a realist. Caron has mailed it in this season. His 'base numbers' look pretty good with the naked eye, but if you dig a bit deeper, you can see why his team is tied for the league's worst at 10-37. He (Butler) is posting a PER of 18.1, down big from last season. He's putting up an eFG% of just 47.8% and a TS% of 54.4%. In addition to his unspectacular offense, he's also taken his defense from slightly-above-average in 07-08 to "Is he trying to lose this game for us"-defense currently.

To sum it up, I'd like coaches to use a combination of ways to guage players- I'd like them to look at each situation independently and not believe that one theory fits all. Or they can make a total travashamockery of the game and vote Stephon Marbury. Say it with me - STEPH 10'!