2009 NBA Playoff Predictions - Round 1 Edition

My friends, it's that time again. The NBA Playoffs - where champions are made and pretenders are sent home. It's a time to celebrate all that's right with the league - the passion, the excitement, the rivalries, the trash talking. No teams battling for the worst record in hopes of that #1 pick here. Just one vision; one goal - an NBA Championship.

This year's version of the NBA Playoffs provides plenty of intriguing story-lines and match-ups and I will be giving my own predictions for each of the 1st-round contests. Let's start out with the Eastern Conference.


(1) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (8) Detroit Pistons

I'm not sure whether it's my inherent dislike for all things Cleveland or not, but I feel like the Pistons have a shot at giving the Cavaliers a run for their money. This has been one of the NBA's better rivalries over the past few years so if you think Detroit is going into this series ready to wave the white flag, I think you have another thing coming. Their core of players, minus Billups, are still there and their title experience cannot be overlooked. For the Cavs, they are the unquestioned favorites and have earned the right to be seen as such. With an NBA-best record of 66-16 and a home record of 39-2, it's their series to lose. What I'll be looking for is the following - Will Tayshaun Prince have any effectiveness guarding and slowing down LeBron James? How will Mo Williams play in his first post-season series with the Cavaliers? Can anyone other than Hamilton, Prince and Wallace take their respective game to another level?

What's funny about this series is that the injured Allen Iverson (who is out) had the most success with the Pistons when playing against the Cavaliers. How's that for irony?

Prediction - Cleveland wins the series, 4-2.



(2) Boston Celtics vs. (7) Chicago Bulls

A thoroughly uninteresting series just days ago has now turned into a match-up that begs the question - Can Boston get by the 1st round without their superstar, Kevin Garnett? I must admit, it's a question I ask as well. It's not easy to take an offensive/defense/vocal force, put him on the bench and have your team be expected to win on the toughest stage. The Celtics are going to have to have a few things happen to win. Firstly, they need Pierce and Allen to take on more of the scoring load. We all know that the Big Three have sacrificed their respective games in the best interest of the team, but that gets thrown out of the window, here. They need to be much more offensively aggressive. Secondly, role players must change their roles. Glen Davis and Leon Powe can no longer be solid reserves. They must be starting-caliber players who can consistently contribute with interior scoring and defense.

For the Bulls to win this series, they're going to need a non-Rookie showing from Derrick Rose, Tyrus Thomas to show consistency and aggressiveness and lastly, a young team transforming from a bunch of talented individuals to a true, cohesive team.

Prediction - Boston wins the series, 4-3.



(3) Orlando Magic vs. (6) Philadelphia 76'ers

You have to respect the 76'ers. They signed Elton Brand to a massive, long-term contract last off-season and expected him to be a huge factor throughout the entirety of this season. Unfortunately, he was only able to suit up for 29 games and will be out for the playoffs, including Philadelphia's 1st-round match-up against the deadly Orlando Magic. But they took the loss in stride and have made the most out of a key injury, finishing 6th in the East. The two "Andre"s (Miller and Iguodala) will need to have career performances and 2nd-year player Thaddeus Young will need continue his stellar play for the 6'ers to have a shot at upsetting.

But I just don't see it happening. Orlando is tried and tested. They are an elite squad on both ends of the floor and have one of the league's true superstars in center Dwight Howard. I don't see Philadelphia being able to handle Superman down low, though Sam Dalembert may play him better than most. And Philadelphia will find it difficult to score on the Magic's number-one-ranked defense.

Prediction - Orlando wins the series, 4-1.



(4) Atlanta Hawks vs. (5) Miami Heat

This should prove to be the most entertaining series of the 1st round, as most 4/5 match-ups are. We have the better team (Atlanta) sans superstar-caliber player, against the worse team (Miami) with Dwyane Wade. The question is - what wins out? Team talent or individual talent? I'm of the thinking that in the playoffs, when two teams are as close as these two are (one being a 4-seed, the other a 5-seed), the outcome of the series is dependent on the superstar(s). Dwyane Wade has been there and done that. He's won a championship and knows what it takes to beat the odds. His play this season has been nothing short of remarkable and though I'd still cast my vote for LeBron James, my 2nd place vote would go to the Miami Heat star. If Wade raises his game to the level I expect and the Heat get average contributions from their other go-to players such as Jermaine O'Neal and Udonis Haslem, they will be tough to beat.

For the Hawks, home-court is big. They were 31-10 this season at the friendly confines of Phillips Arena. They will need a total team effort to fend off the Heat. Joe Johnson has had a solid season but a continuation of his regular-season performance will not suffice. Ditto to Josh Smith. The X-factor for Atlanta will be Mike Bibby. Can he stick the open jumpshots that Johnson and Smith will give him?

Prediction - Miami wins the series, 4-3.

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My Eastern Conference 2nd-round bracket looks as follows...

(1) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (5) Miami Heat
(2) Boston Celtics vs. (3) Orlando Magic

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Now let's move to the wild, wild Western Conference.



(1) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (8) Utah Jazz

There is no such thing as an easy series in the West. Every team that makes the playoffs has some sort of shot at winning their series. The Jazz are finally getting healthy (Boozer is back) and yes, they still have Deron Williams. If the Jazz, a team who, coming into this season was seen as a title contender, can get their groove back, this might be a very interesting series and a potential monumental upset. The Lakers are getting healthy as well. Just recently, center Andrew Bynum has made his return and is contributing off the bat. For a team that came within games of a championship last season without Bynum, you have to feel that a rather serious edge goes to Los Angeles in this case.

Prediction - Los Angeles wins, 4-2.



(2) Denver Nuggets vs. (7) New Orleans Hornets

Now this is a series I have my eye on. Normally, 2/7 match-ups aren't of the most interest or drama, but the Hornets are a team that has been ravaged by injuries all season long, and still managed to compete night in and night out. Chris Paul is a game-changer and can win a series all by his lonesome in my not-so-expert opinion. David West is playing good basketball as well, and if they can get Tyson Chandler back in game shape (he made his return on April 16th), they will be a force to be reckoned with.

The Nuggets, on the other hand, have been living the good life, this year. After trading guard Allen Iverson for a true point guard and leader in Chauncey Billups, they have experienced great success to the tune of 54 wins. They are not just a high-scoring group anymore - they are also the 8th-best defensive team in the league, allowing just 106.8pts per 100 possessions.

Prediction - New Orleans wins series, 4-2.



(3) San Antonio Spurs vs. (6) Dallas Mavericks

You have to feel for San Antonio. Gregg Popovich has done everything in his power to give his triumvirate of stars as much rest as possible, including holding them out of certain regular season games. But due to increasing age and more miles than a 98 Honda Civic, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili might be the fall of the Spurs this post-season. Ginobili is out for the playoffs and Duncan is not 100% or anywhere close to it. For the Spurs to win this series, Duncan is going to need to, somehow, forget that he's 32 and Tony Parker is going to need to carry the team from the point guard position. Every one of their role players must need to do their job to perfection and a 3rd scorer must be established (I'm looking at you, Michael Finley).

For the Mavericks, I believe that, even without the home-court advantage, they have the edge in this series. Their play as of late has been much better than their 50-32 record would indicate. If I had to place a number on it, I'd say they're playing like a 60-win team right now, and will be hard to stop. Kidd has found his niche, Nowitzki is playing like the superstar he is and Josh Howard is back and healthy. It also helps that they have the probable 6th-Man-Of-The-Year in Jason (JET) Terry.

Prediction - Dallas wins the series, 4-2.



(4) Portland Trail Blazers vs. (5) Houston Rockets

Yet another ultra-interesting series out West. You have to feel good about Portland this season. After such a tumultuous stretch of years highlighted by player-arrests, suspensions, drug-charges, fighting and more, they finally have a team to be proud of. A team that you don't just root for because of geographical location but because they're a bunch of good, fun-loving people. The Blazers are making their first playoff appearance since 2003 and also have a healthy Greg Oden who's effectiveness cannot be overlooked. They have the most effective and efficient offense in the league, which is what makes this match-up so fun - the Rockets possess one of the NBA's elite defenses.

Houston is the classic example of a team turning lemons into lemonade. Down goes Tracy McGrady and up goes the Rocket-record. Their team cohesion is sky-high and they will not be an easy out, despite being the lower seed. When you have a player like Yao Ming on your team, you have a shot. What I question about the Rockets is point guard play. Is Aaron Brooks enough to hold down the fort?

Prediction - Portland wins the series, 4-3.


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My Western Conference 2nd-round bracket looks as follows...

(1) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (4) Portland Trail Blazers
(6) Dallas Mavericks vs. (7) New Orleans Hornets

Flip Saunders To Our Nation's Capital

It was announced today that the Washington Wizards and coach Flip Saunders have verbally agreed to a four-year contract that will be worth a reported 18-million dollars - a high price but a highly sought-after, respected and successful coach.

But is Saunders the right coach for this team? I'm torn on that particular question. Flip is clearly an above-average coach. He is renown for his masterful offensive schemes, strategies and principles. He has a personality that will not conflict with the team's stars - Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison. He has a history of winning at a respectable clip and he has experience which cannot be overlooked considering he's taking over a veteran-laden ball-club.

However, one of the things Saunders is not renown for is his defensive strategies which have been characterized as gimmicky and gambling. These defenses, many of which are zone, will gamble for steals and play quasi-dangerously - something that might work with ball-hawks like Arenas and Butler. I question whether this will help the Wizards come playoff time, when the opposing team has 4-7 attempts at successfully game-planning against them.

Saunders, for as good a career winning percentage as he is credited with, has always had a problem winning the more important, crucial games. When coach of the Minnesota Timberwolves, they made it out of the first round just once. He then headed to Detroit, fresh off an NBA Championship, and couldn't get past the Eastern Conference Finals (though credit must be given just getting to that point).

From everything that I just typed, Flip seems awfully reminiscent of the Wizards' last full-time coach - Eddie Jordan. True, he (Saunders) is a better version but their styles, their strategies, their strengths, their weaknesses - it's all so similar. As you may or may not remember, Jordan was known for implementing the Wizards with one of the most successful offenses in the league. He also had excellent rapport with his players - players who defend their former coach to this day. Unfortunately for Coach Eddie, he had one glaring problem. He was defensively challenged. His brilliant strategy to "Protect the Paint" did nothing but have Wizards players frantically scrambling out to 3pt shooters in a desperate, unsuccessful attempt to stick a hand in their face. It was literally like watching chickens with their heads cut off (excuse the graphic analogy). The Wizards, under Eddie Jordan, were one of the worst teams in NBA history at defending the 3pt line and hold NBA records for most threes given up in a season.

The choice of Flip Saunders is a safe, unspectacular selection. He will likely lead the Wizards to a 45-50-win record and a potential 2nd-round playoff birth. He won't cause any problems and will be regarded as a brilliant move by Washington GM Ernie Grunfeld. Will the Wizards get exponentially better under the command of Coach Flip? Probably not, but they will get better and that's what most fans are looking for. Personally? I would have liked to seen Grunfeld go after a coach that offers what the Wizards and any team with aspirations of hanging a championship banner need - defense. Tom Thibodeau was a guy I had my eye on as potential coach. He didn't have the experience and we don't know much about him but what we do know is that he is a defensive guru/mastermind. For a team as defensively challenged as the Wizards, he would have been my choice.