The Miami Heat are currently sitting at 6th in the Eastern Conference with a record of 27-24 (0.529). If you've read this blog, you know that I think that Dwyane Wade is the second-most-valuable player in the NBA and is putting a fairly bad team on his back and carrying them to a respectable record. Their second-best player is Shawn Marion who, despite solid defense and rebounding, clearly doesn't fit in the half-court system coach Eric Spoelstra runs. And while Michael Beasley is an immense talent with a bright future in this league, he should not be a playoff team's third-best player which, on the Heat, he is. Meanwhile at center, they start Joel Anthony (usually followed by a "who?") for the sheer reason that he is tall and a decent defender. The makeup of their team is fairly poor.
But this could all change, soon.
As of today, February 12th, 2009, the Heat are major players in the NBA trade market. Potential moves that are in discussion are 1) a deal that would swap Shawn Marion for Jermaine O'Neal of the Toronto Raptors, and 2) a block-buster of epic proportions that would see disgruntled Suns' forward Amare Stoudemire call South-Beach his new home, with Michael Beasley and Udonis Haslem being shipped to Phoenix or potentially a third team. Without getting into how much I hate the idea of Phoenix trading Stoudemire (and I do H-A-T-E it), Miami is setting themselves up for success....big success.
For the purposes of this blog post, we're going to assume these two trades are agreed upon and that the Heat have a starting lineup that looks as follows...
pg: Mario Chalmers
sg: Dwyane Wade
sf: James Jones (or Daequan Cook)
pf: Amare Stoudemire
c : Jermaine O'Neal
Instantaneously, Miami is transformed from middle-of-the-pack Eastern Conference playoff team to NBA title contenders. That team contains every trait you would want out of an elite team with the exception of a deep and talented bench (which can be solved in one off-season). Amare Stoudemire provides a credible, efficient, effective and offensively dominant inside threat. His biggest fault is defense which, wouldn't ya' know it, is one of Jermaine O'Neal's strengths. Problem avoided. O'Neal also happens to be a perfect third-option scorer - something every contending team must have. Boston has Garnett/Pierce/Allen; San Antonio with Duncan/Parker/Ginobili; The Lakers feature Bryant/Gasol/Odom (and Bynum); Even Cleveland has James/Williams/Ilgauskas.
Miami's interior scoring, rebounding and defense are all strong. Then we move to the perimeter. We all know about Dwyane Wade and what he provides. Suffice to say, they're fine at shooting guard. Chalmers is a rookie and therefore prone to rookie mistakes from time to time, but overall, he's a respectable starting point guard. He makes smart decisions. He can hit the perimeter shot with consistency and most importantly, he defends. The weakest position of their starting-five is small forward where either James Jones or Daequan Cook will get the nod. While neither are starting-caliber players, that shouldn't matter on this Heat team since they have such prolific players from Wade to Stoudemire to O'Neal. What they need out of Jones/Cook is a specialty - something they do really, really well that can help the team. And guess what? Both Jones and Cook are 3pt-shooting specialists. Jones is a career 39.2% 3pt shooter. He's having a down year, hitting only 21.4% of his long-range bombs but this can be attributed to an injury that has caused him to miss all but 14 games this season, thus far. Cook, on the other hand, has been fairly healthy and is shooting a blazing 40.5% from downtown, good for 5th in 3pt percentage for players attempting 250 or more 3pt shots this season.
When I heard that the Heat were in serious contention for acquiring Amare Stoudemire, I immediately thought it was a match made in heaven. A few years back, Kevin Garnett was still with the Timberwolves and Allen Iverson was being shopped by the Philadelphia 76'ers. I felt it was a horrible decision by Kevin McHale not to go after the superstar 2-guard and try to pair him up with 'The Big Ticket' because they would have complimented each other so well. Garnett was unquestionably the better and more complete player but was (and is) instinctively unselfish. Iverson, on the other hand, was lousy on defense but a bona-fide 1st-option scorer. Wade and Amare, like my scenario of Garnett and Iverson, would go together like peanut butter and jelly. The multi-dimensional, versatile unselfish franchise player, and the ultra-explosive scorer who would never go a game without as many good looks as he wanted.
We could potentially see a big change in how the Heat's system is run. Right now, they play solid, if not unspectacular defense, giving up 106.1 points per 100 possessions (good for 10th in the league), but struggle mightily on offense, averaging a paltry 106.2 points per 100 possessions (7th-worst in the NBA). They will likely take a hit on defense. Jermaine O'Neal and Shawn Marion are comparable defenders (both above-average) but Udonis Haslem is a much better defender of power forwards than Amare Stoudemire, known as a very poor defender. Joel Anthony (who?) is a good defender but he is now moving to the bench where he will receive limited minutes. I can see the Heat going from 10th in the league on defense to about 13th. But their offense will be nearly unrecognizable. They would have three credible go-to players and surround them with shooters who are bound to be open more times than not. Expect to see the 7th-worst offense shoot to 7th-best (though not cumulatively - that would require inhuman scorers).
If you are a Miami Heat fan, your life could potentially take a dramatic swing in the upcoming weeks. "Elite" is a word thrown around more than it should be, around NBA blogs and message boards, but there's no other way to categorize what a Wade/Stoudemire/O'Neal combo could become. If you're a Wizards fan, a Magic fan, a Bobcats fan or a Hawks fan, your life just got a little tougher.....potentially.
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