MVP Rankings: Top-10

Let me preface by saying that if your favorite player is not ranked #1, it is not because I hate them. It is not because I hate their team. It is not because I hate you. These rankings are based on a variety of criteria including per-36-minute averages, PER, on/off data (both offensive and defensive), counterpart statistics, team standing, how much help said player has, etc. Now, without further ado, here are my top-10 MVP candidates half-way through the 2008-2009 NBA Season....


#10: Chauncey Billups (pg, Denver Nuggets)

Explanation: This is one of those cases where you look at A) "record before" and B) "record after". Chauncey is not the most talented player on his own team, but he's the motor that keeps the Denver Nuggets running. His statistics are very solid, as always, but nothing that would blow you away. You're not going to see 19pts, 7asts, 3rebs and say "MVP Candidate" but the man knows how to run an offense. For as much as he handles the basketball, 2.3 turnovers per-36 minutes is just what you want from your point guard. He rebounds well for a point guard, meaning he can facilitate the fastbreak. His defense is consistently around the best in the league among guards, as well.


#9: Dirk Nowitzki (pf, Dallas Mavericks)

Explanation: Say what you want about Dirk Nowitzki being "soft" or whatever unsubstantiated claims you may have but the Diggler is still one of the NBA's best power forwards. Per-36 minutes, he is averaging nearly 25pts, 8rebs and 2.3asts with a PER of 23.6, down slightly from last season. If you're looking for the reason he isn't ranked higher than 9th, look no further than defense. The Mavericks give up 3.9 more points per-100 possessions while allowing their opponents to shoot an eFG% 4.9% higher when Nowitzki is on the court. He's not horrible on D, since counterpart data suggests that he holds opposing power forward to a PER of 13.8, though. I'll give him a pass on the less-than-inspiring rebounding numbers considering he's playing with one of the best rebounding guards in league history (Jason Kidd).


#8: Brandon Roy (sg, Portland Trailblazers)

Explanation: It's hard to believe this is just Brandon Roy's third season in this league. Half-way through the season, the Blazers guard is putting up 22pts, 5asts, 4.5rebs per-36 minutes with a PER of nearly 25. It also helps that he's a rock-solid defender and leading his team to a 29-17 record - far better than I expected them to do this season.


#7: Yao Ming (c, Houston Rockets)

Explanation: The Great Wall of China checks in at #7. The Rockets have not lived up to the hype this year, partly due to injuries and partly due to questionable chemistry, but Yao Ming has been doing everything in his power to keep the Rockets at a respectable record. T-Mac, no T-Mac, Artest, no Artest - it doesn't matter. Yao is still able to score both effectively and efficiently. But unquestionably the most underrated aspect of his game is his defense, both post and help. The Rockets, an already top-notch defensive squad, give up 5.9 less points per-100 possessions when he is on the floor while the eFG% of the opposing team decreases by a substantial 4%.


#6: Tim Duncan (pf/c, San Antonio Spurs)

Explanation: There have certainly been better statistical seasons for Spurs' big-man Tim Duncan in his illustrious career, but this one might be the most impressive. San Antonio has been one of the more injury-ravaged teams in the league. Through the first half of the season, Manu Ginobili has missed 12 games while Tony Parker found himself on the sidelines for 9 games, and worst of all, they coincided. So the Spurs featured a starting lineup with rookie point guard George Hill, free-agent guard Roger Mason, what's left of Michael Finley and, depending on the night, one of Kurt Thomas, Fabricio Oberto or Matt Bonner, along with Duncan. Yet, they were able to overcome the adversity with 'Timmay' leading the pack. To go along with his always-stellar defense, Duncan is averaging 20.9pts, 10.6rebs, 3.8asts and nearly 2 blocks per-36 minutes while maintaining a PER of 25. Simply incredible for a player many thought was in the decline just a few seasons ago.


#5: Dwight Howard (c, Orlando Magic)

Explanation: He is the NBA's leading rebounder and shot-blocker, an improved man defender and posting a PER of 25.8 for the 36-10 Orlando Magic, one of the league's biggest surprises. I actually feel dirty putting Dwight at #5 instead of the top-3, but there are simply too many elite-level players this year and I believe Howard to have the most flaws in his game, albeit few. I would like to see a bit more versatility on the offensive end of the floor, in addition to a higher ft% and more consistent offensive outings.


#4: Chris Paul (pg, New Orleans Hornets)

Explanation: This was a tough choice to make because Paul and Howard are statistically very similar but CP3 is just a freak of nature. He breaks the rules of PER, which usually slights point guards. Chris Paul's PER is currently set at 30.3 while he throws out sick numbers each game for a Hornets team that's been hit with the injury bug this year. This is up nearly 3 from last season (27.82). Try to comprehend this - the Hornets rank 28th in pace, and yet, Chris Paul's per-36 numbers would lead you to believe they ran faster than the Phoenix Suns of 2004-2005. He's putting up 20.8pts and 5.2rebs (which, for a guard on a team as slow as New Orleans is just ridiculous) while leading the league in assists (10.9 per game, 10.4 per-36) and steals (2.8 / 2.7). And for as much as he controls the ball for the Hornets, the man averages just 3 turnovers per 36-minutes. He's a statistical phenomenon.


#3: Kobe Bryant (sg, Los Angeles Lakers)

Explanation: Kobe is having yet another MVP-caliber season. His team is easily the best in their conference and Kobe is easily the best player on his team. Looking at per-36 minute data, he has dropped off from last year (3 less points, 1 less rebound and a slightly lower assist average) but his PER has increased. The easiest explanation for this conundrum is a better team. Keep in mind that through the first half of last year, Bryant was without Pau Gasol (traded mid-season) and Andrew Bynum (injured for large portion). With a better team, his PER has ballooned. So why #3, right? Well, I'm of the opinion that if a player has great teammates who can really help carrying the load, that player's importance (see: value) becomes lower. It's not a slight towards Kobe more than it is a compliment to the Lakers.


#2: Dwyane Wade (sg, Miami Heat)

Explanation: Dwyane Wade at #2 is a great example of my personal theory to ranking MVP candidates. Are the Heat elite? Nope, but it's not D-Wade's fault. He's doing about as much as one player can possibly do (well, save for one other guy) to help his team. Comparatively speaking, Wade means more to the Miami Heat than Kobe Bryant does to the Los Angeles Lakers. Miami's second-best player is Shawn Marion who, despite strong defense and rebounding, is having the worst season of his professional career and an overall bad fit for the Heat. They don't have a starting-caliber center, and they are relying on rookie Mario Chalmers for full-time pg duties. Save for Wade, this team just isn't very good. And yet, they find themselves 5th in the East and about to take over 4th. They are able to do this because Wade is having an incredible season. Wade, the leagues top scorer, is averaging (per-36 minutes) 27pts, 6.7asts and 4.8rebs. His biggest improvement, however, is at the defensive end where he's gone from being a good help defender to a great help defender, and from an average man defender to an above-average man defender. Just to give everyone an idea of how important Wade is to the Heat, the league average for PER is set at 15.5. Other than Dwyane Wade, no other player on Miami's roster is at or above 16.


#1: LeBron James (sf, Cleveland Cavaliers)

Explanation: The way I just waxed poetic about Dwyane Wade, you'd think that he was the run-away winner of the MVP trophy, right? I mean, no one can possibly top all of that. Not possible. Oh wait, there's this kid who plays for the Cavs. Goes by the name James...LeBron James. He is easily the Most Valuable Player in the league right now, and this is coming from a Washington Wizards fan. James' per-36 numbers are on par with the all-time greats this season, as is his PER. At 31.6, LeBron's PER ranks 6th in NBA history behind just Wilt (2 appearances) and 'His Airness', Michael Jordan (3 appearances). But this isn't the old LeBron James who knew how to put up the numbers but was unspectacular on the other end of the floor. He has molded and shaped himself into an elite-level perimeter defender.

Scoring? Check.
Rebounding? Check.
Passing? Check.
Defense? Check.

So what's left? Team performance. And, yeah, the Cavaliers are tied for the league's 2nd-best record behind the Big 3 in Boston and tied with the star-laden Lakers squad, despite going without one of the top centers in the league, Big Z, and starter Delonte West for long stretches. Half-way through the 2008-2009 NBA Season, my pick for MVP is, without a doubt, LeBron James of the Cleveland Cavaliers.